Washington, DC

1. GOP mourns Graham
2. Nominee sprint
3. SAVE problems persist
4. Iran conflict ramps up
5. War powers pressure
6. Paramount’s CA exit?

PDB: Peters backs Stevens in Michigan

Trump takes part in Freedom 250 Grand Prix Showcase … US flags at half-staff until Saturday in Graham’s honor … NYT: Israel attempted to recruit ex-Iranian President Ahmadinejad

Republicans grapple with Graham’s death

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death makes the rest of Republicans’ year even harder. As they and President Donald Trump mourn their friend and colleague, GOP senators need to tap a replacement for Graham atop the Budget Committee, and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster needs to choose someone to finish out Graham’s term. Senate Republicans’ majority shrinks to 52 votes in Graham’s absence — and effectively to 51 with Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., disclosing that he’s in a rehabilitation center recuperating from a fall at his home last month. That complicates every task on the floor for the party, from confirmations to legislation. Republicans also need to replace Graham on the November ballot in an August special election. Palmetto State names like Reps. Nancy Mace, Russell Fry, and Ralph Norman; Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; and even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been tossed around.

Republicans hit gas on Trump nominees

Senate Republicans were readying an ambitious list of Trump nominees for vetting this week, though Graham’s loss could slow them down. Todd Blanche will appear before the Judiciary Committee for Wednesday and Thursday hearings on his bid to become permanent attorney general, with the panel split 11-10 in Graham’s absence. That ratio further underscores the importance of winning over Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and John Cornyn, R-Texas, who have yet to fully back Blanche. Jay Clayton, Trump’s stalled pick for director of national intelligence, will have his own hearing on Wednesday. But Clayton may have a tougher road to confirmation following his issuance of subpoenas to New York Times journalists who reported on security concerns surrounding the president’s Qatar-gifted Air Force One. Also getting a confirmation hearing this week: Keith Sonderling, tapped to go from acting to Senate-approved labor secretary.

Johnson’s SAVE Act déjà vu

House Speaker Mike Johnson will spend the next two weeks before August recess struggling with the same SAVE Act problems that forced GOP leaders to cut the last session short. A group of hardliners blocked the House from advancing any legislation in protest of a lack of progress on the voter ID legislation and border security issues. One of those holdouts, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, laid out his own list of priorities for the conference. House GOP leaders have added a daylight savings bill pushed by Trump and the Florida GOP as an apparent sweetener, but the holdouts are still dug in. Johnson is also set to meet with Trump this afternoon, but it’s not clear if more pressure from the president — in the form of social media posts or direct pleas — will move the needle.

— Nicholas Wu

US loses hope for Iran nuclear deal

The Trump administration’s hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran are dwindling further. The US launched some of its heaviest strikes in months against Iran yesterday, as Iran launched its own attacks on US bases in the region. The renewed hostilities are in large part driven by tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump on Sunday said the critical shipping route is open even as Iran, defying the president’s Saturday deadline, declared the waterway closed. The escalation is worrying officials at home and abroad, with Republicans concerned about elevated gas prices and voter discontent over the conflict and Gulf nations once again fielding incoming fire. Pakistan, a key mediator between the US and Iran, has urged “restraint” and “de-escalation” from both sides. But US officials currently don’t see an immediate route back to a ceasefire, which Trump said was over last week.

— Shelby Talcott

Dems eye another war powers vote

The return to war between the US and Iran will revive talk among lawmakers about a war powers vote. Senate Democrats have repeatedly forced votes on bills that would constrain Trump’s military campaign in Iran, and have increasingly attracted support from Republicans uncomfortable with the war. A nonbinding resolution calling for an end to the conflict passed both the House and Senate last month. Trump was able to convince Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Bill Cassidy, R-La., to switch their votes and oppose the last war powers resolution considered by the upper chamber. But it might be harder for the president to persuade members of his party to stick with him now, without a clear path out of the renewed hostilities. Senate Democrats are expected to discuss next steps after they return to Washington today; it’s currently unclear what resolution they might try to move.

— Morgan Chalfant

Paramount weighs California exit

As California threatens to derail Paramount’s $110 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount CEO David Ellison’s friends and advisers have been pushing the media executive to consider shifting his business out of the state, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami scooped. Ellison’s confidants have pushed him to consider moving Paramount’s corporate headquarters and reallocating much of its $30 billion in planned spending outside the state if California Attorney General Rob Bonta were to sue to stop the merger. The considerations may just be a show of brinkmanship, given so much of the industry’s production takes place outside of Hollywood already. Under the current deal, Paramount has committed to keeping both companies’ lots operational if it remains in California. But Paramount would not be the first major company to decamp from California in recent years due to tussles with state regulators.

Blindspot: UFOs and mental health

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Pentagon released new files on UFOs.

What the Right isn’t reading: More than a dozen states sued over the Trump administration’s planned cuts to school mental health grants. 

Semafor Gulf is now expanding to five days of coverage per week, reflecting the growing need for deeper reporting on the region. More than ever, developments in the Gulf are reverberating around the world, affecting events, energy markets, and entire economies. We are growing our network of reporters and editors across the region and the world and, starting this week, are expanding our coverage of the Gulf into a daily briefing. Subscribers will get even more of the sophisticated, scoopy journalism they’ve come to expect, every weekday.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, will today announce that he’s launching a bid to become the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee.

Playbook: Former South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy has been mentioned as a possible short-term pick to finish out Lindsey Graham’s term, according to multiple GOP sources.

Axios: If Democrats take the House in November they intend to keep pressing on the Epstein files, since the issue splits the GOP and “makes Trump crazy,” according to a senior insider.

White House

• Michael Cohen has been quietly trying to make peace with President Trump. — NYT
• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., said he had received a whistleblower report alleging the Kennedy Center had “rushed a series of renovations driven by the President’s aesthetic whims.”

Congress

• Amid a stalemate on spending bills, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is telling his colleagues this morning that Democrats “want to fund the government, avoid a shutdown, and pass strong bipartisan appropriations bills that improve people’s lives.”
• Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., death is believed to have been caused by an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease, according to his office’s summary of preliminary findings.

• Israeli settlers armed with guns prevented Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., from leaving the West Bank during a trip there last week. — NYT

Outside the Beltway

• Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the former emir who transformed Qatar from a little-known Gulf state with declining resources into one of the world’s richest countries per capita, died at the age of 74, as Semafor’s Mohammed Sergie writes.
• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz mobilized his state’s National Guard to combat raging wildfires.

Campaigns

• Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., is endorsing Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., to replace him in the Senate, boosting her in the Democratic primary over Abdul El-Sayed.
• Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., is launching a new digital ad quoting Republicans who’d rather run against her Senate primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, D-Minn., in a general election.

Courts