Washington, DC

1. Trump’s Iran pickle
2. Tough road to recess
3. Economic pessimism eases
4. Tariff questions
5. Trump visits Michigan
6. AI security group
7. Jackson vs. Collins
8. Uganda’s lobbying push

PDB: Zelenskyy heads to DC

Oil prices drop amid pause in US-Iran strikes … Chinese chipmaker jumps 466% in market debut … UN’s Guterres visits Syria

Trump weighs Iran next steps

President Donald Trump paused strikes against Iran over the weekend after almost two straight weeks of attacks, but the administration appears no closer to ending the war. Trump had threatened a major escalation, but ultimately held off, in part because of concerns about dwindling interceptor stockpiles, as The New York Times reported. The war has dragged on longer than Trump expected, and some inside his orbit have been wary about the prospect of a prolonged conflict. There’s also internal divisions about whether the US can make a deal with Iran, as advisers eye rising gas prices, voters’ disapproval of the conflict, and the looming midterms. “There is a mix of opinions,” one US official said of next steps. “The problem is, [there are] no good options.” Iran, for its part, said it will stop launching strikes as long as the US does the same.

— Shelby Talcott

Everyone wants something from Thune

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s two-week road to recess starts this evening with a procedural vote on Jay Clayton’s nomination to be director of national intelligence. It’s shaping up to be a rocky trip. Republican Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Rick Scott of Florida say they will object to recess if the chamber doesn’t pass the SAVE America voter ID bill. The motion to adjourn could be approved by a simple majority, but it’s rare to have a roll-call vote for that. A few blocks up Pennsylvania Avenue, Trump wants Thune to approve the House-passed budget before recess. And bipartisan groups of senators want deals on crypto, college sports, and Russia sanctions — all of which could take several days apiece to process. Thune has indicated he’ll prioritize Trump’s nominees, funding the government through the election, and possibly Russia sanctions.

— Burgess Everett

Americans’ economic gloom eases

Americans’ economic pessimism eased somewhat this month, a positive sign for the White House as it battles inflation fueled by the Iran war. Gallup’s economic confidence measure rose to -31 in July from a low of -45 in May, an improvement largely driven by Republicans and independents shifting in a more positive direction. Twenty-two percent of American adults rate US economic conditions as excellent or good (still, that’s up from 16% in May). A plurality — 44% — say economic conditions are poor, and more than two-thirds say they’re getting worse. The poll was conducted July 1-19, during which time Trump declared the brief ceasefire with Iran “over” and both sides traded escalating strikes. Oil prices have since seen a larger rebound.

US importers grapple with tariff uncertainty

Last week’s new Trump tariffs “introduced an exponential amount of uncertainty” for US importers, the Consumer Technology Association’s Ed Brzytwa told Semafor. His comments come after the Trump administration rolled out new levies on 60 economies and teased 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, 100% tariffs on generic drugs, and “substantial” tariffs on the European Union. With the tariffs that lapsed Friday, “we knew what we were getting,” Brzytwa, vice president of international trade, said. He pointed to importers’ inability to submit comments on the Canadian tariffs as well as unanswered questions over whether officials might exempt additional goods from the 60-country tariffs and how those tariffs might interact with levies that stem from ongoing investigations, including into semiconductors. A senior administration official last week brushed off such concerns as a natural outcome of a dramatic break with longstanding trade policy.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump stops in Michigan swing district

Trump is scheduled to stop at an auto facility in Michigan today as the GOP pivots to the midterms. “The president pledged to put Michigan workers back to work, and he’s doing it,” said White House spokesperson Liz Huston. Trump is visiting a General Motors facility in Milford, in a congressional district where a crowded field of Democrats is vying to challenge GOP incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett. Democrats are hoping Trump’s low approval ratings, tariff-related business shocks, and high gas prices will put the purple seat in play. Trump’s visit is taking place the same day as the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge between Detroit and Ontario, which has emerged as a symbol of tensions between Canada and the US. A joint opening ceremony last week was spiked after Trump renewed his trade war against Canada.

— Nicholas Wu and Eleanor Mueller

Tech giants launch new AI security initiative

Nvidia is heading up a new alliance of tech industry giants focused on keeping open-source AI models secure as Washington debates how and whether to restrict them. “The right response is not to deny defenders access to capable open systems. It is to pair openness with strong safeguards, clear rules against malicious misuse, rigorous evaluation and rapid remediation,” Nvidia writes in a blog post this morning launching the new initiative, called the Open Secure AI Alliance. A range of tech and cybersecurity companies are joining the effort, including Palantir, IBM, CrowdStrike, SpaceX, and Hugging Face — the company recently hacked by rogue closed models produced by OpenAI. Nvidia says it plans to contribute open models, data, and other resources to the alliance to help “speed the development of new cybersecurity tools and techniques.”

— Morgan Chalfant

Maine Democrats reboot

Maine Democrats have their new challenger to Republican Sen. Susan Collins, and are replacing Graham Platner with a progressive who campaigned for him: former state Senate president Troy Jackson. Instead of a charismatic novice, Collins will face a fixture in state politics who held and later abandoned some conservative views over his time in Augusta. Collins accused Jackson of taking a “hyperpartisan approach” to politics, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee launched its first advertisement against Jackson, depicting him as a Platner ally and citing recent reporting about his Augusta tenure to portray him as nasty and violent. Jackson used his nomination event in Bangor to accuse Collins of enriching herself and other wealthy people while working-class Mainers slid back: “This movement, it is not from the left, it’s not from the right; it’s from the bottom, and we are rising.”

— David Weigel

Uganda hires up in DC

Uganda is moving to shore up its standing in Washington, hiring two lobbying shops as Kampala works to combat congressional criticism of its human rights record and make the case for ending Ebola-related travel restrictions and advisories. The push comes as lawmakers question Uganda’s government, particularly the outsized role of Chief of Defense Forces Muhoozi Kainerugaba — President Yoweri Museveni’s son and a potential successor — who has drawn criticism for crackdowns on opposition figures and the media, erratic outbursts, and consolidating military influence over civilian politics. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., told Semafor that “the continued repression” by Muhoozi is a “clear indication of his desire to consolidate power.” Moran Global Strategies and Skyline Capitol registered as foreign agents for the Republic of Uganda this month, according to public filings.

— Adrian Elimian

Blindspot: Fraud and DOJ banners

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A woman accused of taking part in a $32 million COVID-19 relief fraud scheme was arrested in Jamaica and brought to Florida to face federal charges.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Justice Department spent close to $1 million to clean the exterior of its Washington building and put up banners with President Trump’s face on them, Politico reported.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with a bipartisan group of senators this week, he’ll make the case for the Senate’s Russia sanctions bill — a pitch largely steered toward Democrats who are split on the proposal because of its expansion of President Trump’s tariff powers.

White House

• President Trump is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Tuesday, when the Ukrainian leader will be in town for Sen. Lindsey Graham’s funeral. — ABC
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Fox News that he plans to press Trump to keep “constant, constant watch” on Iran’s nuclear program when they meet this week.

Congress

• Unreleased documentary footage shows how the late Sen. Lindsey Graham pushed for US military action against Iran. — WSJ