Central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have indicated that they are content to let bond markets absorb the economic impact of the US war with Iran. This approach has led to a surge in yields, reducing the immediate need for rate hikes. However, some experts warn that relying solely on market tightening may not be sufficient to control inflation, especially if energy prices continue to rise.

The US Treasury raised its third-quarter borrowing estimate to $739 billion, $68 billion above its May projection, as weaker expected cash flows outweighed the benefit of a larger starting cash balance. The revision puts more focus on Wednesday's refunding plans, with traders watching whether Treasury shifts issuance toward longer-dated debt as inflation concerns and elevated yields keep bond markets sensitive.

A rare joint US-Japan intervention lifted the yen from near a 40-year low, but investors remain skeptical the move can last without BOJ tightening. Analysts warn that persistent rate gaps, Japanese bond buying and carry-trade positioning could keep pressure on the currency and turn a sharper yen rebound into a broader market risk.

Treasury basis trade returns have dwindled to just a few basis points as large dealers use softer capital rules to replicate a strategy long dominated by hedge funds. The compression is forcing firms to reassess the trade's appeal, with bank participation reducing dislocations and making the once-popular arbitrage far less rewarding.

The CLARITY Act is running out of time before the US Senate recess, with the crypto market-structure bill still seven votes short of the 60 needed to advance. The measure would divide digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC, but Democratic resistance and concerns over US President Donald Trump's crypto ties are threatening the industry's push for a durable federal rulebook.

This comprehensive 2-day Masterclass was developed to help participants understand the terminology of collateral, securities, and related documentation, learn about relevant regulatory history and current market practice, especially with regard to the post-Uncleared Margin Requirements landscape. This course also includes practical explanations of tasks and responsibilities for OTC margin managers. Register here to secure your spot!

ISDA's yearly Canada conference provides insights on key legal and regulatory updates affecting global and Canadian markets, as well as ISDA initiatives. This event will explore key regulatory and policy updates, market infrastructure, trading and clearing developments, and emerging industry challenges, while providing valuable insights from experts across the Canadian financial sector. Click here to register.

Global credit default swap (CDS) market activity reached a record $41.8 trillion in 2025, surpassing the previous peak of $38.7 trillion in 2022. Index CDS drove the increase, accounting for 93.3% of total activity and reaching a record $39.0 trillion. Click here to read the paper.