US Treasury yields moved higher Tuesday as investors weighed uncertainty around potential US-Iran negotiations and the impact on oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 2 basis points to roughly 4.71%, while the 30-year yield climbed to about 5.25% and the 2-year yield was little changed near 4.26%. Analysts said the discrepancy between US and Iranian messaging could sustain safe-haven demand, support oil prices and add to inflation concerns.

Economists estimate the AI investment and stock-market boom has become a major driver of US economic growth, with AI-related business investment reaching an annual rate of about $1.5 trillion, up from $1 trillion two years earlier. Barclays estimates bond issuance at five major hyperscalers and SpaceX will reach $285 billion this year, up from $109 billion last year. "It is very much an AI-driven economy right now," said Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. "It's hard to imagine that we would be anywhere near as resilient without that impetus."

The US Treasury raised its third-quarter borrowing estimate to $739 billion, $68 billion above its May projection, as weaker expected cash flows outweighed the benefit of a larger starting cash balance. The revision puts more focus on Wednesday's refunding plans, with traders watching whether Treasury shifts issuance toward longer-dated debt as inflation concerns and elevated yields keep bond markets sensitive.