Washington, DC

1. A pivotal primary night
2. Dems vs. Rogers
3. Hormuz deal in sight
4. Budget outlook
5. Bipartisan anti-tariff push
6. Trump’s campaign swing
7. White House’s AI close-hold

PDB: Collins won’t vote to confirm Blanche 

Senate votes on Schwartz for CDC … Rubio meets with UK foreign secretary … Russian attack on Kyiv kills at least 17

Takeaways from a pivotal primary night

Tuesday’s primaries refused to settle into one of three storylines, Semafor’s David Weigel reports: The Democratic establishment couldn’t get some of its candidates over the line, the party’s rising left wing couldn’t win some key races, and Republicans in two red states couldn’t convince voters to change election rules to make their party stronger. The highest-profile Democratic contest, the Michigan Senate primary between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens, remained too close to call as of this morning, with El-Sayed leading 48.6% to Stevens’ 47.4%, belying some El-Sayed supporters’ predictions of a landslide. The left’s only decisive win last night was also in Michigan, where Sunrise Movement co-founder Will Lawrence won his House primary; in Missouri, progressive former Rep. Cori Bush didn’t come close to ousting Rep. Wesley Bell, who unseated her two years ago with heavy AIPAC support. Meanwhile, voters in Missouri and Kansas shrugged off pro-GOP ballot measures.

After Michigan, Dems look to Rogers

With the brutal Michigan primary behind them and El-Sayed likely to be their nominee, Senate Democrats are immediately refocusing on Republican nominee Mike Rogers, according to new details shared first with Semafor. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with a six-figure ad buy starting today that hits Rogers for taking money from the drug industry and insurance companies, deeming him “the biggest name in corruption.” Democrats also have new polling from GQR making the case that their nominee has “key advantages” over Rogers. That new polling, conducted in June, found Trump way underwater at 58% unfavorability and Rogers trailing a generic Democrat 50%-42%. The poll showed Rogers himself at 29% favorable and 32% unfavorable. El-Sayed may have run his primary against the Democratic establishment, but if he wins, that establishment will be prepared to help him beat back a guaranteed barrage of GOP attacks.

— Burgess Everett

Hormuz deal may be in sight

The US, Oman, and Iran have agreed the contours of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that could be announced today, Axios reported. Oil prices plunged on the news, reflecting expectations of a lasting arrangement that has failed to materialize several times. The deal would implement a ceasefire and establish a 60-day period for Oman and Iran to govern the Strait of Hormuz: Ships entering the channel would use a northern lane through Iranian waters, then exit through Omani waters, in coordination with Tehran. Crucially, no tolls or fees would apply. Iranian negotiators are gambling everything on the waterway, according to The Wall Street Journal, treating it as a red line and their best leverage over Washington.

What’s next for government funding?

The Senate is poised to clear a government funding patch this week by an overwhelming margin, but that won’t mean smooth sailing in the House. With Republicans reaching a recent low point in cross-Capitol relations, the House GOP may not be quick to take up the Senate-passed legislation when it returns to session next month. Senators’ addition of language to their bill blocking a Trump administration rule on federal grantmaking could prove especially problematic in the House, which already cleared its own funding stopgap despite opposition from Democrats, who wanted restraints on immigration enforcement. If the Senate-passed legislation does make its way to the House, it might pick up more support from the left, with House Democrats already praising senators’ bipartisan approach. Still, roughly two months from the shutdown deadline, lawmakers might not feel pressure to reach a deal yet.

— Nicholas Wu

Russia sanctions amendment vote eyed

The Senate’s Russia sanctions package will probably have to survive an amendment vote aiming to limit its new presidential tariff authority ahead of any final vote this week, according to senators and aides. Sens. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., want an amendment vote on the tariff power to speed up final passage, and it’s likely to be at a simple-majority threshold — meaning it’ll be a close one. Paul’s amendment would eliminate the sanctions bill’s tariffs of up to 100% on the top five countries purchasing Russian fuel and the top five countries helping Russia evade sanctions. A spokesman said Paul wants “to stop the tax increase on American families that is being sold as economic warfare against [Vladimir] Putin.” Wyden told Semafor that giving Trump new tariff authority is a mistake right before the midterms that risks conflicting with Democrats’ affordability message.

— Burgess Everett

Trump hits campaign trail in Las Vegas

Trump is spending his second day out west today, with a planned speech in Las Vegas highlighting his administration’s efforts to address the cost of living. The trip, which began with an RNC fundraiser in California on Tuesday, comes at a dire time for the president. Trump is still looking to successfully resolve the unpopular Iran war. And Republicans are facing a tough path to victory in the midterms, which has prompted the White House to get Trump out on the trail more regularly (though he declined to sign the housing bill that marks one of his administration’s biggest steps this year on affordability). Trump will talk about “his Working Families Tax Cuts” in Las Vegas today, according to White House spokeswoman Liz Huston. He’ll focus on Democrats, too: Huston said Trump will “remind Nevadans” that Democrats voted against those tax cuts.

— Shelby Talcott

WH’s AI framework close-hold jolts industry

The Trump administration told a handful of tech firms Tuesday that it will not publicly release its new framework for voluntary government reviews of advanced AI models, people familiar with the meeting told Semafor. The decision, reported first by Axios, is fueling industry concerns that firms not briefed on the framework may not opt in to government review because they don’t know enough about it. Ironically, administration officials also told AI firms they would host a public event touting the framework later this month, the people said. “The Trump team appears destined to give us something far more arbitrary and burdensome [than the Biden administration] with this behind-closed-doors de facto licensing regime they are concocting,” R Street Institute’s Adam Thierer told Semafor. The White House did not respond to a request for comment on its reasons for keeping the framework private or its upcoming event.

— Eleanor Mueller

Blindspot: Jack Smith and helipad

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Former special counsel Jack Smith will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next month about his investigation into President Trump, Politico reports.

What the Right isn’t reading: Trump ordered contractors to redo weeks of work on the White House helipad because he was “frustrated with its appearance,” The Washington Post reports.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: As results came in, Michigan Senate Democratic primary candidate Abdul El-Sayed said: “They want to tell us that here in Michigan, we’re a purple state … But really, up and down the state, what you hear is, ‘I wonder how I can afford my rent?’ … We are not a purple state. We are a state in need of a movement.”

Playbook: The Senate Leadership Fund is putting out a statewide digital ad campaign today that uses El-Sayed’s own words to describe himself as “dangerous.”

Axios: Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., has dropped his reelection bid following a House Ethics Committee investigation.

White House

• A National Parks Service assessment found that President Trump’s proposed arch could disrupt the “integrity” of dozens of other sites.

Congress

• Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, will oppose Todd Blanche’s nomination to be attorney general. She said she thinks while “Blanche is a capable lawyer, the Department of Justice has become increasingly political.” All eyes are now on Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana.
• Rep. Max Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper that he will not end his reelection campaign, as more details about his ex-wife’s allegations of domestic abuse come to light.

Outside the Beltway

• Missouri’s Republican secretary of state rejected a petition to redraw the state’s electoral maps in favor of the GOP.

• MyPillow founder Mike Lindell is stepping down from his company as he runs for Minnesota governor.

Polls

• Three-quarters of 2024 Kamala Harris voters said the Democratic Party is not doing enough to challenge President Trump, per an Economist/YouGov poll.

Campaigns

• Montana independent candidate Seth Bodnar said that “if there were somebody else who had a pathway to defeat Kurt Alme in this race, I’d step aside in a heartbeat.” There’s a lot of chatt