Washington, DC

1. Schumer’s fall of discontent
2. GOP spares Miller
3. Michigan polling debacle
4. Iran, Oman make progress
5. Labor market slowdown

Shares of Google ▼ 4% after the head of its AI unit, DeepMind, stepped down.

Primaries pad Schumer’s list of detractors

Abdul El-Sayed’s win in Michigan marks the second primary defeat of a candidate backed by Chuck Schumer — and adds to the Senate minority leader’s potential detractors next year, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. El-Sayed wants to replace Schumer with Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. Half a dozen viable Democrats are threatening to oppose Schumer as leader, and three — El-Sayed, Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Maine candidate Troy Jackson — have already won their nominations. Two more Schumer opponents are still in primary fights: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who is facing Rep. Angie Craig next week, and Rep. Seth Moulton, who is taking on Sen. Ed Markey in Massachusetts. Dan Osborn, an independent in Nebraska, said recently he would “probably not” support Schumer as leader if Democrats win back the majority.

Republicans spare Miller pressure campaign

Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, might beat the odds with his colleagues. After Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., quit his race over sexual harassment accusations, a handful of Republicans are now endorsing a challenger to Rep. Cory Mills of Florida, who is under investigation by the Ethics Committee for alleged sexual misconduct. But they’re taking a different tack with Miller, as Ethics investigates allegations of abuse by his ex-wife. “This is clearly an evolving situation, with new allegations continuing to emerge, which is all the more reason to let the full process play out and follow the facts wherever they lead,” said Rep. Kat Cammack, R-Fla., the House chair of the Republican Women’s Caucus. Speaker Mike Johnson told Politico he’d let the process play out. Miller faces a deadline today to drop out. Democrats, meanwhile, are eyeing all three seats.

— Nicholas Wu

El-Sayed’s victory underperformed the polls

An age-old question reemerged today: Can we trust the polls? El-Sayed’s margin of victory over Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary appears to be about 1 percentage point. Yet the race was expected to end in a blowout; nine polls taken in the last month and tracked by The New York Times showed El-Sayed ahead by 10 to 19 points. One reason for the discrepancy: Several of those polls were released by El-Sayed’s backers. Primary polling is also notoriously weak. Pollster Nate Silver weighted primary polls back to 2000 and found that they tend to be off by an average of 9 points. And the Michigan race was unusual, with one of three contenders dropping out. El-Sayed’s support was concentrated among college-educated voters, who pollsters tend to find easier to survey than the rural and non-college-educated voters who made up Stevens’ base.

Iran, Oman close on deal to reopen strait

Iran and Oman have agreed to key elements of a deal to co-manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key step toward opening the waterway to trade and reaching a peace agreement with the US. The US is reportedly reviewing the draft agreement, which some reports say does not give Tehran the right to impose fees on commercial ships, though other reports say the toll-free period will be limited to 60 days. US officials had drawn a red line on Iran charging tolls for use of the strait, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent softened his tone on the issue this week. Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea today — a reminder that the conflict has grown more complex in recent weeks even as Trump has attempted to wind it down.

Job growth slowed in July

Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, a slowdown from June’s gain of 95,000, according to data from ADP released today. The numbers fell below analyst predictions of 75,000 jobs. Most of the hiring was in the healthcare and education sectors, a longtime trend in the labor market. Wage gains were steady at 4.4%, above most inflation measures. The report offered some good news for job-changers, who averaged a 7% wage increase. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly jobs report. Last month’s jobs numbers fell below expectations, and previous months were recast downward. Though the data doesn’t seem upbeat, analysts say the labor market has shown remarkable resilience through the global energy shock driven by the Iran war.

White House

• The Trump administration has cleared about $100 billion in tariff refunds so far. — Politico
• The Treasury Department issued guidance expanding incentives for employers to offer paid family and medical leave.
• The US government terminated its contract with Kentucky’s Network for Hope after finding that it tried to pursue organs from critically ill people recovering from their injuries.

Congress

• The Senate voted to confirm Erica Schwartz as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• The Trump administration is pushing Congress to delay a planned ban on intoxicating hemp products, a move critics say could benefit chief of staff Susie Wiles’ son-in-law’s hemp business.
• A group of Democratic lawmakers asked the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate how companies backed by President Trump’s sons received defense contracts.

Courts

• Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro was “doing a great job” at a news conference, but noted President Trump can fire her at any time.
• An appeals court ruled against a New York City law requiring food delivery companies to share customers’ data with restaurants, deeming it unconstitutional.
• New Mexico sued the Justice Department for allegedly stonewalling the state’s criminal investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.

Foreign Policy

• President Trump’s Hamas disarmament deal is in jeopardy. — WSJ
• FBI Director Kash Patel has forged new law enforcement partnerships with China and Russia over the past year, including through personnel exchanges and joint arrests. — Reuters

World

• A North Korean missile unit has begun deploying to Russia, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence. — Reuters

Immigration

• A federal judge took the final step allowing the Trump administration to end Temporary Protected Status for thousands of Haitians after last month’s Supreme Court ruling.
• The Trump administration has detained dozens of immigrants who are the parents or spouses of active-duty US troops. — AP

— New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Abdul El-Sayed.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel