Climate shipping bottlenecks
To get from Minnesota to China, a load of soybeans might meander down the Mississippi River on a barge, transferring around New Orleans to a ship that carries it through the Panama Canal and across the Pacific. But this summer, low water levels have throttled traffic moving through the canal and limited barge cargo on the river. In Europe, the Rhine and Danube rivers, both important shipping channels, also saw record-low water levels. Across the logistics industry, it’s been a season of bottlenecks caused by low rainfall and shrinking rivers. In addition to the heat, floods and storms that have delivered acute shocks to local economies in recent months, climate change is worsening droughts, increasing shipping costs and slowing movement through the waterways that act as conveyor belts for global trade. Add in record-setting prices for the diesel that powers the global cargo industry, and it’s no wonder costs of goods are climbing. “I think the combination of factors probably, either now or soon, will be fairly significant in terms of increasing world food costs,” said David Gantz, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The Panama CanalAbout 5 percent of ocean shipping traffic flows through the Panama Canal, which relies on a system of locks that use millions of gallons of fresh water to move ships. Low rainfall, made worse by El Niño weather patterns, has contributed to low water levels in the lakes that feed the canal. The authorities have responded by slashing the number of vessels that can travel through the waterway each day. At the start of the month, the number of slots available fell from 38 to 34. Next week, it will be cut to 32. This is not the first time a drought has affected shipments through the Panama Canal. In 2023, severe water shortages pushed daily transits down to 24 per day. The MississippiOn the Mississippi River, which carries the barges that transport almost half of U.S. corn and soybean exports, the American Commercial Barge Line implemented its low-water protocol this month, setting limits on how low vessels can sit on certain parts of the river. That means operators have to lighten their loads or use smaller boats. Low water levels in the Mississippi have caused problems off and on for several years now, Gantz said. The waterway offers a cost-effective means of transporting agricultural goods from the Corn Belt to the Gulf Coast. A single barge can carry the equivalent of more than a thousand trucks or 200 rail cars, according to the American Farm Bureau. The most severe Mississippi River drought on record came in 2022, when reduced capacity and delayed shipments drove up the costs of transport and ultimately drove agricultural exports from Louisiana ports down by almost 4 percent, according to an analysis by researchers at North Dakota State University. The RhineThe Rhine River, one of Europe’s main shipping arteries, hit all-time lows this year, exposing sunken ships and forcing barge operators to lighten their loads. The drought fell outside of typical periods of low flow, which have historically happened in the fall. A 2018 drought that affected the Rhine shaved 0.3 percent off Germany’s economic output that year. “We’re seeing this kind of water crisis a lot earlier than normally we would expect to be dealing with it,” said Alexandra Naegele, research scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. Woodwell’s projections suggest that in the next few decades, the Rhine could see two additional weeks per year when water levels fall so low that barges have to reduce their volume by at least half. The ArcticWhile shrinking rivers are paralyzing traditional trade routes, warmer temperatures are opening new ones in the summer months as Arctic sea ice disappears. Just this week, a Chinese cargo ship, the Dubai Tower, finished a three-week journey from Qingdao to Teesport, England, using an Arctic shortcut that shaved several days off the trip from Asia to Europe. It’s a major milestone and an indicator of the big changes to come as a warming planet redraws shipping routes, but experts say it’s not yet commercially feasible. One major hurdle: The season doesn’t last long before the ice freezes over. The shipping company behind Dubai Tower is hoping to sail seven more times before winter sets in.
A new warning on A.I. pollution and health risksA group representing more than 800 former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency today sounded the alarm over the health consequences of data centers. It warned that Trump administration policies to weaken pollution safeguards and speed up approvals of data centers threatened to increase health risks across the country. In a report set to publish Thursday, the nonprofit Environmental Protection Network examined projected pollution from the power plants, gas turbines and diesel generators needed to meet data centers’ surging electricity demand. “These are decisions that can affect what Americans breathe, what gets into our water and, ultimately, what can make its way into our soil and food supply,” said Dr. Lynn Goldman, a pediatrician and former E.P.A. assistant administrator who is a member of the group. — Hiroko Tabuchi Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Follow The New York Times on Instagram, Threads, Facebook and TikTok at @nytimes. Reach us at climateforward@nytimes.com. We read every message, and reply to many!
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