14 - 20 September 2026

Regulation can build a moat

This week’s insights include:

Meta just paid US$18 billion to bring an end to lawsuit: As part of the agreement, Meta will only pay 70% if YouTube and TikTok fail to also pay US$6 billion each. The settlement requires the introduction of new platform limitations for those under the age of 18.
Big Tobacco turned similar scrutiny into market-beating returns: Decades ago, the same playbook was used against the tobacco industry, and it inadvertently protected the market share of large and established companies.
It didn't work out so well for online poker: Regulation isn't a one way ticket to a good investment. Tougher restrictions on online gambling payments, and website seizures, shrunk the market.
The mechanism matters for investors: Tobacco's rules targeted its advertising, not the cash flows, allowing the businesses to survive (and thrive). Poker's regulation was directed at the money itself, cutting off the lifeblood of those companies. The question worth asking, which one is social media?

This week's Market Insights article is a 14 minute read!

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Hi everyone,

Regulation might be one of the most underrated forces in a portfolio.

We often spend our time analyzing growth, margins, and valuations... the things we can model. Regulation gets less attention, and I suspect it's because it sits outside our control. So we wave it off and hope for the best.

But it can be make or break. Get the mechanism right and you might spot the next Altria, one of the best-performing stocks of all time, despite decades in the government's crosshairs. Get it wrong and you're sitting idle while a single policy shrinks the industry underneath you.

And it's everywhere, once you start looking. Even in my own portfolio. Tesla is facing an NHTSA probe over its new Cybercab having no steering wheel or pedals. Alphabet is caught in the social media scrutiny through its ownership of YouTube. And Coinbase, led by Brian Armstrong, is actively lobbying on bills like the CLARITY Act.

That's the thread in this week's Market Insights. We use Big Tobacco and an industry that didn't survive its own crackdown to get at the real question: when regulation arrives, how do you tell if it is productive or destructive?

Sincerely,

Mitchell Lawler, Senior Investment Editor

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets, any sound investment will eventually pay off”

~ Carlos Slim Helú

This week in the markets

Here’s a quick summary of what’s been going on:

Ship fuel shortage looms as war-strained refiners favour other products
Investors to pore over inflation data for rate trajectory signals
Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face for nearly $13 billion
Tim Cook warns of memory chip prices in final address as CEO
China’s EV makers shift gears from cars to focus on humanoids

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Join the discussion by leaving a comment!

If governments keep tightening the screws on social media, which platform do you think holds up best?

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Key events next week

Monday