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Republicans are often assumed to have important demographic advantages over Democrats. Birth rates in American counties that reliably vote red are higher than those in blue counties. And domestic migration boosts their populations, at the expense of Democratic ones. But
our analysis
suggests there are two big caveats undercutting this narrative.
In his first term, Donald Trump branded Kim Jong Un “Little Rocket Man”, then agreed to the first-ever summit between the leaders of America and North Korea. Now Mr Trump wants to meet again. But America has less leverage over North Korea than it used to.
Our story
explains why Mr Kim is operating with newfound confidence.
What to expect in the week ahead:
▸ The last remaining American forces in Iraq are set to leave the country on Wednesday. Their departure marks the formal end of America’s campaign against Islamic State, as well as the end of its military presence. It comes amid a
wider American withdrawal
from the region, after it emptied its bases in Syria this spring.
▸ Inflation data for the euro zone are set to be published on Friday. Average inflation in the bloc reached 3.3% in August, the highest in three years, mostly driven by the
energy shock
caused by the Iran war. The combination of price rises and steady growth will probably keep rates on the continent higher for a while.
▸ Brazil’s general election takes place on Sunday. The country is all but certain to opt for another four years of
polarising gridlock.
Neck and neck in the polls are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old incumbent known as Lula, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, a former populist president serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing his bid for re-election in 2022. | 
