Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated.
With the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia shifting to a hiking posture, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/Tightening (+) soars from +2.95/10 to +9.02/10—our highest reading in 20 years.
Over the past month, the Fed hiked from 3.63% to 3.88%, the ECB from 2.25% to 2.5%, and the BoJ from 1% to 1.25%. The PBoC held steady at 3%, the BoE at 3.75%, and the Bank of Canada at 2.25%.
The market’s expectations for a further hike at the next FOMC meeting, on October 28, have been highly volatile, with incoming data and new comments from Fed officials whipsawing them. CME FedWatch pegs the probability at 38% today, down from 71% a week ago. Less forward guidance from the Fed chair following the transition from Jay Powell to Kevin Warsh may be contributing to that volatility.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
All best,
