Washington, DC

1. Schumer’s nominee warning
2. Iran looms over midterms
3. Pulte under scrutiny
4. Russia sanctions pressure
5. New SCOTUS term
6. Jeffries’ campaign plans
7. Fewer Americans thriving

PDB: Trump’s AI task force

Trump in Nebraska … Brazilian elections move to runoff … Spanish PM calls snap vote

Dem-led Senate would block Trump picks

The winner of Senate control would snatch one of the biggest tangible prizes of the midterms: control over President Donald Trump’s nominees. If Democrats are in charge, don’t expect many of Trump’s picks to move at all. “If the nominees are as crappy as his present ones, very few of them are going to get through. If he sends us a new [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth, I bet he wouldn’t pass the Senate,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told Semafor in a preelection interview. “It’s the quality of the candidate that matters. Thus far, Trump has a record of notoriously bad candidates.” Democrats are favored to take the House, which would limit big bipartisan breakthroughs on legislation next year. But if Republicans can hold the Senate, they’d at least retain the ability to confirm Trump nominees — most notably, lifetime judicial appointments.

— Burgess Everett

Trump administration eyes Iran midterm play

As the Trump administration weighs next steps in the Iran war, at least some in the administration worry that Iran will consider taking action to damage the president ahead of the midterms. “I think that’s a real possibility that they may want to inflict some pain on the president before the midterms, and so they may do something in the next couple weeks,” one Trump administration official told Semafor. “We’ll see.” Top administration officials met at Camp David on Friday on the Middle East conflict, which threatens to widen as war breaks out between Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and the Iranian-backed Houthis. The meeting came as indirect talks between Washington and Tehran have yet to yield meaningful progress. Meanwhile, the US has removed all B-1 bombers from an airbase in the UK used for launching strikes against Iran, following arrests in a suspected terror attack plot.

— Shelby Talcott

Democrats demand testimony from Pulte

Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee are renewing their calls for Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte to appear before Congress after he sidelined its internal watchdog earlier this month. “Hearing testimony from Director Pulte is more important than ever in light of his recent decision to shutter the FHFA Office of Inspector General,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., shared first with Semafor. They also highlighted Pulte’s other moves, like appointing himself as chair of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; laying off employees; accusing Trump’s political enemies of mortgage fraud; and serving simultaneously as acting director of national intelligence. The letter provides a useful roadmap for how Democrats would scrutinize the agency if they win a majority of either chamber this fall. Scott and FHFA did not return requests for comment.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump panned over Russia sanctions

House Democrats are panning the Trump administration after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer wouldn’t commit last week to imposing Russia sanctions recently enacted by Congress. Rep. Greg Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called Greer’s comments to Semafor “a completely unsurprising development that only reaffirms what I’ve said all along: There’s no reason to believe Trump or his administration will suddenly hold Russia accountable.” Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia, the top House Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, said that “as I and others warned, this legislation provides the president with extremely broad waiver authority to ignore most of the bill’s provisions.” He pointed to recent reporting that Trump is weighing lifting existing Russian sanctions: “I am not holding my breath to see him take any substantive action targeting Putin’s regime.”

— Eleanor Mueller

SCOTUS begins new term with climate case

The Supreme Court kicks off its new term today with a climate case that could have far-reaching implications. The justices will sit for oral arguments in a dispute over an effort by Boulder, Colo. to seek damages from major oil companies ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy for the effects of fossil fuel-driven climate change. The high court will weigh whether federal law prevents the case from proceeding, meaning the outcome will not determine whether Boulder can hold the companies accountable, only whether the case can move forward. Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from the case, meaning he won’t participate today. The justices will also hear a case over limits on benefits for incarcerated veterans. The coming term promises to be consequential, with the conservative court — increasingly unpopular with the American public — set to take up a range of cases over Trump’s immigration policies.

Where Jeffries could campaign next

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is set to swing through more districts across the country, he told reporters yesterday afternoon. This past weekend, he campaigned in competitive districts in Nevada and California, and said it was his “expectation” that he’ll head to seats closer to his home district, like ones in New York and New Jersey. Jeffries said he could also spend time in the Midwest, Florida, and Texas. Democrats are increasingly confident they can thwart GOP gerrymanders in Florida and Texas if Hispanic voters swing left. “It is clear that the Republican gerrymandering scheme has failed,” Jeffries said. And Democrats are attempting to push into even redder territory, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee rolling out six new candidates on its “Red to Blue” program this morning, including state Rep. Justin Pearson, who’s running in a GOP-redrawn Tennessee district.

— Nicholas Wu

Fewer young Americans ‘thriving’

The number of young Americans who say they’re “thriving” is near a low point while the share of middle-age adults who say the same is at a nadir, underscoring the level of relative dissatisfaction among these key demographic groups ahead of the midterms. Only 44% of adults ages 18 to 29 describe their lives as thriving, according to Gallup. Forty-five percent of adults 30 to 44 say the same. These declines appear to be tied to increases in rates of depression, among other factors. The share of those ages 45 to 64 is also at a low of 46%, on par with the measure during the 2008 financial crisis. In sharp contrast, those 65 and older are more likely than ever to say they’re thriving, which appears largely driven by satisfaction with their economic situation.

Blindspot: Jobs and deals

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets.

What the Left isn’t reading: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett defended the economy as strong on Fox News, following a disappointing jobs report.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration’s discussions with Russia about finding a resolution to the Ukraine war now “include a multibillion-dollar oil deal that would benefit Middle Eastern business executives with ties to” envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, The New York Times reported.

Behind closed doors, a new era of healthcare policy is taking shape. From AI and access to care, to the race for new drugs and China’s growing role in global medicine, the forces remaking healthcare are accelerating, with implications for healthcare systems worldwide.

Introducing Semafor Healthcare, your weekly read on the politics, policy, and business driving healthcare. Brought to you weekly by David Lim, Semafor Healthcare will deliver the analysis and reporting leaders need to understand the forces reshaping healthcare, and what comes next. Subscribe for free.

White House

• President Trump’s pick for AI czar, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, will lead a task force preparing a report within 120 days on the risks and benefits of AI, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump also announced that the task force will include FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson, Undersecretary of Defense Emil Michael, and OPM Director Scott Kupor.

Congress

• Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., criticized President Trump for posting Sen. Tom Cotton’s, R-Ark., cell phone number on social media because of a dispute over a bill that would make daylight saving time permanent. Trump “can go from zero to a-hole in about three seconds,” Kennedy told NBC.

Outside the Beltway

• The FBI arrested a realtor in California after she allegedly tried to spy on the US-based son of the president of Taiwan.