The separatist Parti Québécois is projected to form government in Quebec after promising to hold an independence referendum in the next four years, with the prospect of such a vote increasing if the PQ is able eke out a majority.

After a five-way race that revealed a divided province and a splintered federalist vote, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party was leading or elected in dozens of the province’s 127 seats as of election night on Monday. The numbers appear to be enough for the PQ to form a minority government, but some seats have yet to be called. The party needs to secure 64 seats to claim a majority in the National Assembly.

The election comes at a delicate moment for national unity, with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away, and persistent threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy from U.S. President Donald Trump. Among the provinces, Quebec has been the biggest casualty of Mr. Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, which has targeted its aluminum and forest product industries in particular.

The PQ Leader has promised a vote on the province’s place within Canada once Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029, at which point Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says Quebec can have a “serene” discussion about its future.

With a minority in the National Assembly, the PQ would need support from members of the National Assembly in other parties to trigger a referendum, and to stay in power.