Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. Today, I analyze the race for the Senate in Kansas and where Democrats must drum up support to finally win after a 90-year drought. Let’s dive in.
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Let’s talk Kansas.
The Sunflower State has emerged as perhaps the unlikeliest Senate battleground this year, with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall locked in a surprisingly tight contest with Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and it has sided with every GOP presidential nominee since 1968.
And yet, a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend gives Marshall, who has faced scrutiny over his residency status, a scant edge of 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%. The national implications of a Hamilton win would be enormous, dramatically increasing the likelihood of Democrats’ regaining control of the Senate. (Remember, the party needs a net gain of four seats to win the majority, which means it has to successfully defend every seat Democrats currently possess and flip four more.)
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Roger Marshall, left, and Adam Hamilton. (Bloomberg via Getty) |
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Recent history provides grounds for skepticism. In the 2014 midterms, Kansas was also regarded as something of a surprise battleground... |
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