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OF ALL THE STATES THAT COULD give us an indication of how big the blue wave will be this cycle, Iowa is one of the most intriguing.
Donald Trump never came within 8 points of losing the state. But of the ten polls of this race since September 1 in the New York Times polling aggregator, the Democrat leads in four, the Republican leads in five, and one was a tie.¹
The state is a petri dish for Trump’s toxicity: diesel prices, corruption, and concerns about AI and data centers all have particular relevance in Iowa. It also will be a strong case study in what types of Democratic candidates can play in states that have drifted right over the Trump years. The Democratic nominee for Senate, Josh Turek, is likeable, admirable, and has run a non-stupid campaign.
And yet, if the focus groups I conducted in the state last week are telling me anything, one of the deciding factors in the race will be
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