Democrats pushed further into deep Republican territory this week, adding US House districts Trump won by double digits in 2024 to their midterm election target list, fueling talk of a Democratic, or "blue wave," victory on November 3. 

But are Democrats in danger of misreading the size of the wave they believe is building? 

Democrats are behaving less like a party fighting to take Congress from Republicans and more like one debating how large its future majority might be, even as Trump pursued a 32-day campaign blitz to shore up Republican candidates hurt by high prices, the Iran war and his record-low approval ratings. 

On Monday, the Democrats' US House campaign arm expanded its battlefield into solidly Republican districts in Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia, including a seat Trump carried by 24 points in 2024. Republicans and their allies have been diverting cash from competitive races to help candidates in once-safe seats now on the defensive. 

Yet beneath the optimism, some worry Democrats might be getting carried away. 

None of the party insiders, pollsters and analysts I spoke to doubt that Democrats will retake the House. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the chamber. But several cautioned that a gain of 15 to 20 seats remains more likely than a historic rout.  

The Senate remains a nail-biter. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip it, but most of their best opportunities are in Trump country and Republicans are running stronger than expected in states Democrats expected to be safer wins, including Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. 

Some are also haunted by opinion polls that have overstated Democratic strength in recent elections and the fact that voter enthusiasm does not always translate into turnout. 

The signs of a potential Democratic wave are real enough. Whether that surge in support can deliver a commanding majority or a modest one – and whether it extends beyond the House – is the question that still hangs over November. 

Follow Reuters/Ipsos polling on the president's approval ratings here.

What are the most plausible paths for Democrats and Republicans to win control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, and which races are most likely to determine the outcome?  

Answer by Jason Lange, Politics Data Reporter

Democrats face an uphill fight to win the Senate, where they need to pick up four seats. They'd have to hold Michigan and New Hampshire – both tight races – while flipping four of six Republican-held seats in play: Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas – the last two of which haven't elected Democrats to the Senate in over a decade. 

Republicans face more pressure in the House, where their 218 members hold the smallest possible majority in the 435-seat chamber. About three dozen races nationwide are competitive. Democrats' best pickup chances include Republican-held seats in Nebraska's 2nd, New Jersey's 7th and California's 48th, where district boundaries were redrawn to favor Democrats. Democrats must also defend Ohio's 9th and North Carolina's 1st, both redrawn to favor Republicans.