Welcome back to Off the Record, coming to you from Brussels as I pack for Warsaw, where I’ll attend the annual security conference next week.
I’ll be speaking with Poland’s finance minister and the European Commissioner for the EU budget as money talks enter a critical phase, with capitals hoping to strike a deal on the contentious common budget before Christmas. If you’re a journalist, that means working under the mistletoe — bien entendu.
Poland is one of three major EU countries heading into an election year in 2027, alongside France and Italy. In Spain, my home country, Pedro Sánchez has played another ace: bringing forward a snap election for 29 November.
The vote represents a test of whether Spain remains a socialist stronghold in Europe or shifts sharply to the right, with significant implications for the balance of power in both the European Council and the European Parliament.
Although the campaign hasn’t started, Europe is already a pressure cooker.
Protests have erupted in Paris and Madrid over student conditions and housing. Though the two movements are not directly connected, they point to a common thread: a fraying social contract and a deeper crisis of democracy. Both movements offer an opportunity for the left to mobilise progressive voters.
I’ve long argued that one reason for today’s extreme polarisation is the failure of traditional socialist parties to offer a convincing alternative to the market-driven solutions championed by late capitalism under the Troika's watch.
A decade of Merkel-era austerity made voting for either side of the centrist spectrum feel like a false choice across much of Europe. You’d get the same outcome either way. To succeed in today’s political climate, you have to be disruptive and embrace a degree of populism.
In Madrid, Sánchez is doing exactly that. His first radical move? Calling the election. The conventional wisdom in political circles was that Sánchez would let the clock run down, buying himself some breathing space from the Ceuta crisis.
The mass crossing, which saw 80,000 people enter the Spanish enclave illegally, has haunted his government for two months, exposing its shortcomings. Two months on, the crisis remains unresolved: migrants are stranded, minors are still unaccounted for, and local residents are understandably furious.
But the zeitgeist shifted after police evicted María del Carmen Abascal, an 87-year-old woman, from her flat in Madrid. She died in hospital this week. Her death has become a black swan event in the campaign, upending the political debate in ways few could have anticipated just two weeks ago.
Maricarmen became the symbol of a wave of protests sweeping the country over exorbitant rents. Her story has galvanised young people and the left. A sprawling camp-out in central Madrid now dominates the political conversation.
In troubled waters, there is always an opportunity for Sánchez, arguably Europe’s most skilful political operator. The Spanish premier has shifted, reshaped and flipped the narrative whenever necessary to stay one step ahead.
Few sitting prime ministers or heads of state can do what he does. His approach is driven less by principle than by sheer political survival. And that is what makes him the most interesting politician to watch in Europe.
| 
