From the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security
October 13, 2026
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By Paul B. Stares
General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security
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Dear Colleague,
Welcome to the second edition of On Peace and Security. Thank you to those who reached out following the August edition to express support—we at the Wachenheim Center are grateful for your interest and ideas. As we do every October, we now ask you, our newsletter subscribers, for your assistance compiling our annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS). The PPS ranks emerging and escalating conflicts and sources of instability around the world based on their likelihood of occurring in 2027 and their potential harm to U.S. national interests. We are asking you to share the conflicts you are worried about in 2027. We value your suggestions of what you think will occupy U.S. policymakers in the coming year.
Later this year, we will include some of your suggestions in a survey taken by U.S. foreign policy experts, who will rate them by likelihood and potential to harm the United States. The rankings will be published in a report this December. As subscribers to On Peace and Security, you will be among the first to receive the results of the nineteenth PPS. |
Please submit your responses by Sunday, October 25. |
Below are examples of contingencies from the 2026 PPS: -
U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in Venezuela, destabilizing the Maduro government
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renewed armed conflict between Iran and Israel, caused by Iranian efforts to reconstitute its nuclear program and rebuild its regional network of anti-Israel proxy groups
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growing insurgencies across the Sahel (especially in Mali) exacerbate regional instability and human suffering
- an intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers
I look forward to reading your suggestions. Thank you. Sincerely, Dr. Paul B. Stares
General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security
Council on Foreign Relations |
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Gang warfare, hunger, and a disintegrating health-care chain have hollowed out Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince. Seven hundred miles away, the U.S. government has revoked Temporary Protected Status, a humanitarian immigration status used by Haitians since the devastating earthquake in 2010. Up to 350,000 Haitian migrants could now be deported to a country beset by violence. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Fellow Sam Vigersky reveals the conditions for civilians and discusses prospects for stability in Haiti in a new CFR Visual Story. Read the article
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CFR is seeking applicants for its nine 2027–28 fellowship programs. These transformational programs enable professionals who are U.S. citizens with a demonstrated interest in foreign policy to gain experience working in a new environment in Canada, Europe, Indonesia, Japan, or the Republic of Korea; in the U.S. government; at an international organization in New York or Washington, DC; or at CFR. Selected fellows will broaden their perspective on foreign affairs by working in a policymaking setting or conducting research in an academic environment.
Award and eligibility vary by program. Visit cfr.org/fellowships for more information or to apply. |
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About the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
The Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security aims to help the United States navigate the dangers of a more turbulent and conflict-prone world. Building on CFR’s century-long commitment to informed U.S. engagement in the world, the center produces rigorous, forward-looking research and practical policy recommendations aimed at preventing and managing armed conflict. It pursues this mission in three core areas: preventing major power war, reimagining international conflict management, and supporting peace efforts in conflict-affected regions. The center convenes expert dialogues, conducts simulations and contingency planning, and develops practical institutional recommendations designed to equip policymakers with the tools they need to prevent, mitigate, and resolve conflict. In all its work, the Wachenheim Center emphasizes strategies that are realistic and actionable, with a clear focus on translating research and ideas into meaningful impact for those threatened or afflicted by armed conflict.
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Paul B. Stares General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
Natalie Caloca Assistant Director, Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
Alexandra Dent
Global Conflict Analyst, Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
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| Molly Carlough
Assistant Director, Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
Abi McGowan Global Conflict Analyst, Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security |
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Photos:
A member of the Houthis stands outside the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, during a rally on February 11, 2026, marking the tenth anniversary of the embassy’s closure and departure of U.S. Marines following the Houthi takeover. (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)
The final members of Kenya’s multinational force to train and assist Haitian police board a plane to depart Haiti in Port-au-Prince on April 27, 2026. (Fildor Pq Egeder/Reuters) |
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