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ONE TO GET YOUR BLOOD PUMPING — “The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway,” by Kyle Cheney, Heidi Przybyla, John Sakellariadis, Lisa Kashinsky. Laying out the steps:
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Donald Trump's increased confidence in the final weeks of the campaign will test VP Kamala Harris' cautious approach. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | ||
CREATE YOUR OWN REALITY — Trump and his followers might not be as confident about victory as they’re projecting, but that’s undeniably their public posture with a little more than two weeks to go before Election Day. Harris is playing it cool, holding to her early mantra that she’s the underdog. Indeed, nobody inside the Harris operation or among her top allies believe she’s a sure bet. Nervous Democrats™ are, well, increasingly nervous, and the switch in momentum to Trump in recent weeks — based in part by slight shifts in polls — has intensified their fears. But it’s hard to conclude that the asymmetrical attitudes of each party about what has long been a coin-toss election aren’t having an impact on the vibe shift. To appropriate the roadside billboards about traffic: You’re not stuck in vibes. You are vibes. So, how exactly should you feel? Relying on what the candidates or their campaigns are saying about their standing in the race isn’t always a good indicator of where things stand (unless they are leaking sensitive, unvarnished information, which has yet to occur). That’s especially true in the Trump era: It’s far less common for MAGA devotees to second-guess, let alone criticize their leader. For the anti-Trump set, it’s been another tough election cycle of Democratic officials and operatives sounding the alarm about a crucial voting bloc or hitting the panic button over their standing in a battleground state — instead of self-muzzeling or screaming into their pillows. So on this Sunday morning, let’s step back and examine how the campaigns are approaching the finish line, where they are excelling, and where they can be expected to take things in the final stretch. To that end, Playbook assembled a snapshot: TRUMP’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: Ahead of Saturday’s rally in Latrobe, Pa., home of the late, great golfer ARNOLD PALMER, Trump senior adviser JASON MILLER told reporters the candidate “planned to preview his closing argument against [Harris] and ‘start to get into that framing,’” AP’s Michelle Price and Will Weissert report. It didn’t go as planned. Trump landed deep in the rough, praising Palmer for his powerful swing with “stiff-shafted clubs” — as well as his manhood, writes Irie Sentner. The AP headline: “Trump kicks off a Pennsylvania rally by talking about Arnold Palmer’s genitalia” “When he took the showers with other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable,’” Trump said. Trump also called Harris “a shit vice president” and suggested President JOE BIDEN should tell Iran’s leaders that he’ll “blow your country to pieces” for openly threatening the former president. But there was little in the way of new, or least productive, material to help close the deal. BUT, BUT, BUT: There have always been at least two Trump campaigns unfolding in unison — one focused on the candidate, and the another led by professional operatives that’s mostly taken place in paid TV advertising. The latter is far more disciplined, precise and even more scorched earth: The vast majority of Trump’s ads are and have been negative. It’s in those so-called impressions that Trump may well have an edge over Harris. Trump’s campaign late last week started running a Spanish-language version of its ads that features Harris’ support for providing taxpayer-funded gender transition-related medical care for detained immigrants and federal prisoners. So far, Trump’s campaign has spent tens of millions on transgender-focued ads. On that issue, Harris told Fox News’s Bret Baier this week that she will follow the law , and referred to a timely report by NYT’s Glenn Thrush that found Trump’s own appointees provided “an array of gender-affirming treatments” during his time in office. BUT, BUT, BUT: Trump’s ground game has been a bigger question mark since he outsourced it to others. Billionaire technologist ELON MUSK is now promising to give $1 million each day to “someone who signs his online petition supporting the U.S. Constitution,” Reuters reports. Musk is helping register and mobilize voters on behalf of Trump and has given at least $75 million to America PAC, making him an increasingly crucial figure in Trump’s reelection bid. But catching up with Harris’ field operation will be difficult, and some veteran operators believe standing up an internal team of foot soldiers that can train and marshall volunteers is the proven route. Related:
“Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake,” by the Guardian’s Hugo Lowell | ||
Harris is moving to more aggressively confront Trump. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | ||
HARRIS GOES TO CONTRAST: Harris has lacked truly viral moments of late and has struggled with questions inviting her to put some distance between herself and Biden. Her strongest moments of the campaign have come when the lights on her were brightest — her dominant debate performance and her DNC speech in Chicago. Her testy Fox News interview with Baier drew more than 7 million viewers and she’s set to appear Wednesday outside Philadelphia in a town hall moderated by CNN’s Anderson Cooper. Now, Harris is moving to more aggressively confront Trump — first, by further supplementing what started as a steady diet of more positive TV ads running in battlegrounds with ones warning that Trump in a second term would be more “unhinged,” “unstable” and “unchecked.” Democrats also abandoned what CNN’s David Wright and Alex Leeds Matthews describe as their earlier emphasis on immigration and crime — part of an initial effort to blunt attacks in the weeks after Harris took over for Biden. It isn’t just in ads that Harris is shifting to a sharper approach. Taking a page from Trump’s rally playbook, the VP’s campaign has started playing video montages of Trump, including a reel in which he complains about “the enemy from within” and suggests jailing his opponents. Harris is taunting Trump by questioning his fitness and dismissing him as weak and tired, saying Friday that his team cited “exhaustion” when bowing out of media appearances — news first reported here in Playbook. Over the weekend in Atlanta, Harris centered Trump in returning to Democrats’ most politically potent issue of the cycle. She tossed to a video clip of Trump being informed by a Fox News host that the family of AMBER THURMAN — the Georgia woman who died when she failed to receive timely medical care because of the state’s ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy — held a pre-buttal media availability before his event, writes Brakkton Booker. “That’s nice,” Trump said of Thurman’s family talking to the press, adding it would likely boost his own TV ratings. “Where’s the compassion?” Harris asked, noting that Thurman’s parents were in the crowd and vowing to “always remember her story and speak her name.” Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line: ccadelago@politico.com. | ||
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SUNDAY BEST … — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON on Trump’s vow to use the military against who he deems “the enemy from within,” on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “He’s talking about using the National Guard in the military to keep the peace in our streets. … Trump is talking about restoring law and order and I’m telling you, you can mock it, people in the media can mock it, but that resonates with the American people.” More from Greta Reich — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on Trump’s recent comment that the Jan. 6 Capitol attack was a “day of love,” on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “Most people there didn't attack the Capitol. They came out of love of the country.” — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on Trump’s extreme rhetoric, on ABC’s “This Week”: “Nothing new and nothing that’s going to move the dial when it comes to this election right now. … If Kamala Harris thinks that just repeating the crazy things Trump says is going to garner her those swing voters, that’s not what they're going to the polls on.” — Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO on Musk’s offer to give voters $1 million for signing his petition, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I think it’s something that law enforcement could take a look at. I’m not the attorney general anymore of Pennsylvania, I’m the governor. But it does raise some serious questions.” — Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN on claims that Trump is unfit for office, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I think what this whole line of attack on President Trump reflects is the fact that we have a candidate in the Democratic Party who is unable to really convey a future vision for the country and what she's going to do to attack the most important issues.” — Maryland Gov. WES MOORE on voters’ frustrations with the Biden-Harris administration, on “Fox News Sunday”: “To that person, I would just say, I hear you and you’re right. But if you look at the policies that are being laid out, one fundamentally addresses the issues of basic affordability for everyday Americans. And one makes affordability almost a laughing stock.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
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At the White House Biden will return to the White House from Camp David. At 7 p.m., he and first lady JILL BIDEN will speak at a dinner to celebrate the new White House public tour, which she’ll unveil tomorrow. On the trail Trump is set to hold a town hall event in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, at 5 p.m. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) is set to deliver remarks in Waukesha, Wisconsin, at 6 p.m. Harris will attend a church service and deliver remarks in Stonecrest, Georgia in the morning. In the afternoon, she will participate in an early voting event and record an interview with AL SHARPTON.
Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will be in Saginaw, Michigan, for campaign events in the morning. In the evening, Walz will deliver remarks at a campaign reception in Boston before heading to another campaign reception in Greenwich, Connecticut. | ||
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Harris' strength with women could expand as Election Days approaches. | AP | ||
MIND THE GAP — The gender gap in this election is already huge — and the final stretch of the campaign could make it even bigger. In the closing weeks, Harris is banking on Trump’s position on abortion to persuade women — especially white women without a college degree — to burnish her standing among women and give her safer margins in her race against Trump, Elena Schneider and Myah Ward write. “The Harris campaign believes the vice president ‘has a path to make further gains with women,’ particularly with those who are under 40 and those without a college degree, [pollster MOLLY] MURPHY said in an interview. “It’s a strategy, described by several top campaign aides, with massive implications for the shape of the electorate. Between Harris’ push on abortion and Trump’s growth with male voters — especially young men — pollsters on both sides of the aisle are predicting that 2024 will represent the largest chasm in vote preferences between the two sexes in modern political history.” RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE BY THE NUMBERS — More than 102,000 ballots were cast in Georgia yesterday as of 1:30 p.m., bringing the Peach State’s early-voting total to nearly 1.4 million as of Saturday afternoon, according to state data. More from Brakkton Booker TAKING A SWING — With a handful of swing states set to determine the presidency once again, a host of NYT reporters fanned out to check in with those voters “living on the campaign battlefield,” Adam Nagourney, Alan Blinder, Julie Bosman, Benjamin Oreskes, Mitch Smith and Jonathan Weisman write . “They have been buried by barrages of television advertisements, texts, internet pop-up banners, dinner-hour telephone calls, get-out-the-vote door-knocks, candidates swooping through remote parts of their states and tense conversations with co-workers and neighbors.” Speaking of those states:
MUSK READ — As ELON MUSK continues stumping for Trump, NYT’s Eric Lipton, David Fahrenthold, Aaron Krolik and Kirsten Grind take “an accounting of Mr. Musk’s multipronged business arrangements with the federal government, as well as the violations, fines, consent decrees and other inquiries federal agencies have ordered against his companies. Together, they show a deep web of relationships: Instead of entering this new role as a neutral observer, Mr. Musk would be passing judgment on his own customers and regulators.” TAPPING IN TO TECH — “Inside the Harris campaign’s blitz to win back Silicon Valley,” by WaPo’s Cat Zakrzewski, Nitasha Tiku and Elizabeth Dwoskin: “The candidate is steering clear of making the hard promises many tech people want — including to dismiss Biden appointees the industry sees as hostile — people familiar with the meetings say, but leaders in Silicon Valley say the courtship is working.” DEFINING DAYLIGHT — Despite passing up opportunities to fully break from Biden, the latest NYT/Siena polls “suggest that Ms. Harris has been able to distance herself somewhat” from her boss, NYT’s Ruth Igielnik writes. “Still, there are some warning signs for Ms. Harris in battleground states that are considered likely to decide the election. In polling of five swing states last month, on balance, more voters thought Ms. Harris’s policies would be harmful than helpful.” JIM-NASTICS — Veteran Dem operative JIM MESSINA gets on the phone with NY Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti to talk about Harris’ “best shot at victory, Democrats’ best ways to talk about abortion and January 6, and how nostalgia is buoying Trump over Harris when it comes to the economy.” A taste: “There’s this absolutely f--king stupid argument in my party that says you either turn your voters out or you persuade. The campaigns that win at the presidential level do both, and that is the campaign that Kamala Harris has built.” FRIENDLY ADVICE — “John Fetterman doesn’t want to ‘mansplain’ to Kamala Harris,” by Shia Kapos | ||
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6 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR | ||
U.S. officials are investigating a leak regarding Israel's plans to retaliate against Iran. | AP |
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1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: U.S. officials are “investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran,” CNN’s Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt report . “The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called ‘Middle East Spectator.’ “They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its ‘Five Eyes’ allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. … A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies.” Related reads: “Israeli strikes on northern Gaza leave at least 87 dead or missing, Palestinian officials say,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy … “A Mideast Shift Is Underway, Without Israel,” by NYT’s Maria Abi-Habib and Ismaeel Naar 2. TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES: “The CIA analyst who triggered Trump’s first impeachment asks: Was it worth it?” by WaPo’s Greg Jaffe: “In the half decade since his complaint kicked off a political firestorm, the analyst has declined all requests to speak publicly about his actions, even as he has reckoned privately with whether they made a difference. Did his lonely stand help to check what he saw as Trump’s bad behavior or reveal the weakness of the guardrails around the presidency? Did it strengthen his country’s democracy or lay bare its flaws? He described his experience, which included death threats that upended his life and required the CIA to provide him with round-the-clock protection, in interviews over the past two months.” 3. FLORIDA MAN FACE-OFF: “Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis’ quiet feud over Florida’s hurricanes,”
by Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard: “Both have been ubiquitous in the run-up to and aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton slamming into Florida, issuing extensive pre-landfall warnings and touring damage afterwards — but never together. And while neither has directly criticized the other by name, Tallahassee insiders, including those with ties to the two Republicans, have noticed the subtle jabs each has taken as the state rebuilds. It’s the latest front in a cold war that has existed between Scott and DeSantis since DeSantis first took office back in 2019.” | ||
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4. THE BIG FIX: “With an eye on House majority, Democrats mull ways to ‘fix Congress,’” by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “Even Democrats acknowledge that, in their previous four years of holding the majority, the institution wasn’t exactly performing up to par. Rank-and-file lawmakers have an endless list of complaints, from scheduling conflicts, to committee chairs disregarding junior members, to leadership ignoring the work of those legislative committees. … “Just as some of the most interesting ideas for overhauling the Senate came from former senior GOP staff, a similar survey of former House Democratic aides offered up some interesting and surprising ideas. Speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid any blowback from current or former employers, these ex-aides generally diagnose the same problem: The average lawmaker feels removed from the process, and even when they can come up with bipartisan ideas that have support, their bills languish.” 5. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “Scatter and Survive: Inside a U.S. Military Shift to Deny China ‘Big, Juicy’ Targets,” by WSJ’s Niharika Mandhana at North Field, Tinian, Mike Cherney in Tindal, Australia, and Camille Bressange in New York: “The remote Pacific airfield used to launch the atomic bombings of Japan during World War II is being revived with a different foe in mind: China. “Runways emerging from the encroaching jungles on the tiny island of Tinian, a U.S. territory, are part of a sweeping shift in how America’s military would respond to a possible conflict in Asia. Instead of relying on a few large air bases, the U.S. would disperse its warplanes to make them less vulnerable to China’s enormous arsenal of missiles. That means identifying, upgrading and reviving airstrips across the Indo-Pacific that could be pressed into service.” 6. WELL-OILED MACHINE: “They Are Basking in America’s Oil Boom — and Preparing for the Big Bust,” by WSJ’s David Uberti in Hobbs, New Mexico: “Analysts are now beginning to project what could be the ultimate, slow-motion bust after U.S. shale peaks and producers increasingly look elsewhere to drill. A shift away from fossil-fuel production — the speed of which could hinge on November’s election — has inspired warnings that America’s o |
