| Is it too soon to start counting victories?
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| TAMPA – Kickoff for tonight’s game against the Ravens is hours away, and already it’s been a good week for the Bucs.
You can thank the Falcons for that. Atlanta got blown out at home against a Seattle team that had lost three consecutive games. It was the second time this season that the Falcons blew a game despite being favored by three points or more.
That’s a huge gift for the Bucs, who came into the weekend tied with Atlanta atop the NFC South. Considering Tampa Bay’s next four games are against Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Francisco, the Bucs could use a little help keeping pace in the division for the next month.
This is what makes the NFL regular season so enticing. The NHL and NBA regular seasons are glorified dress rehearsals that don’t get interesting until the final weeks before the playoffs are set. The MLB season, at 162 games, is a truer indication of a team’s performance but is a crapshoot on a day-to-day basis.
The NFL? Each week, you have a pretty good sense of whether your team is supposed to win or lose. And that means every missed opportunity is a little bit of heartache to be endured.
If we’re being realistic, the Bucs will be fortunate to go 2-2 in the next four weeks. And that would be fine, as long as one of those victories is against the Falcons.
By losing to the Seahawks, Atlanta just gave the Bucs some unexpected breathing room in the South. Even if the Bucs lose to Baltimore tonight – and the Ravens are three-point favorites – the Bucs can be no worse than tied for the division lead when they face the Falcons on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.
Essentially, we have a race to 10 wins. Maybe 11. Which leads to a lot of staring at the schedule and figuring out where victories can be collected.
It’s okay to be concerned about the next four games. It’s probably advisable. It would not be a shock, nor would it be catastrophic, if the Bucs emerge with a 5-5 record on Nov. 11.
Because, once they reach the bye week in mid-November, the schedule turns in Tampa Bay’s favor. The final seven opponents currently sport a 14-32 record. Only the Chargers, at 3-2, have a winning record. And even though four of the games are on the road (Giants, Panthers, Cowboys, Chargers) I would expect the Bucs to be favored in at least five of the final seven weeks.
The Falcons, meanwhile, have difficult road games at Denver, Minnesota and Washington still to come in November and December.
So, yeah, it’s possible things are going to be a little tense the next four weeks. It’s even possible the Bucs might lose their grip on first place.
But as long as they beat the Falcons on Oct. 27, everything else should take care of itself.
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| A potential monster-sized hole in the defense
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| • Interesting plot twist in the final hours before tonight’s game. Vita Vea was a late addition to the injury list with a hamstring problem and did not participate in Saturday’s practice. Officially, he is listed as questionable against the Ravens. How concerning is that? Extremely, would seem to be the appropriate response.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing, and quarterback Lamar Jackson is a perennial MVP candidate. There is no scenario where a Vita-less lineup isn’t considerably weaker against that offense. And with the critical Falcons game on the horizon, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs were ultra conservative when deciding whether to put Vea on the field with an iffy hamstring.
• Vea is not the only Buc hurting. Cornerback Jamel Dean has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Dean missed four games last season with ankle and neck injuries and two games in 2022 with a bad toe.
• The Bucs have scored 30 points or more in three consecutive games. Technically, the franchise record in the regular season is four in a row. The Bucs pulled that off midway through the 2021 season. But, realistically, the Bucs are a long way from matching the 2020 standard. In Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay, the Bucs topped 30 points in their final three regular season games and then four consecutive times in the playoffs. If you want to count the first two games of the 2021 regular season, the Bucs went over 30 in nine consecutive games.
• After being inactive for two games, punter Jake Camarda returned to the field last week against the Saints. Does that mean his job his secure? I wouldn’t bet on it. Camarda had a net average of 25.3 yards in three kicks last week. For the season, he is No. 31 in the NFL in punting average (45.3) and No. 34 in net average (36.5).
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| — John Romano, sports columnist
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