By Grace Yarrow

Presented by the Hass Avocado Board

With help from Meredith Lee Hill

With Election Day fast approaching, ag policy and farm bill disagreements are becoming a hot topic in a few key congressional races. | AP

— Farm bill clashes and ag policy differences are cropping up ahead of Nov. 5 in two of the most expensive and competitive House races.

— Who are Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s top options for USDA secretary and other top Cabinet positions?

— Ag industry groups are beginning to sound the alarm about the economic risks posed by Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

IT’S MONDAY, OCT. 21. Welcome to Morning Agriculture. I’m your host Grace Yarrow. Happy National Apple Day! Send tips and your favorite fall songs to gyarrow@politico.com and follow us at @Morning_Ag.

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A message from the Hass Avocado Board:

Following a five-year evaluation of the promotion program conducted by the Hass Avocado Board (HAB) and its member associations, independent researchers at UC Davis have concluded the marketing efforts have played a fundamental role in expanding demand for Hass avocados in the U.S. Click here to get the perspectives of thought leaders from different industries on HOW and WHY avocado promotions have successfully shaped and strengthened this crucial industry for present and future growth.

RACES WE’RE WATCHING: Election Day is getting closer (eek!) — and though top-of-ballot candidates are largely avoiding getting into the weeds on ag policy details, disagreements over farm policy are becoming more prevalent in debates, ads and campaign promises in a few tight congressional races.

Here are some developments we’re keeping our eyes on as Nov. 5 approaches:

Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), is a member of the House Ag Committee and faces former USDA official Lanon Baccam this November. | Alex Brandon/AP

In Iowa’s 3rd: Incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), a freshman member of the House Ag Committee, is facing former USDA official Lanon Baccam in an ag-heavy part of the Hawkeye State.

Baccam, a Democrat with the backing of USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and other Democratic ag officials, has touted his work at the Agriculture Department under Vilsack along the campaign trail through multiple TV ads this fall. Baccam has also slammed Nunn’s ag record during a recent debate between the two.

“Iowans want to see someone who's willing to get in there to compromise to get things done,” Baccam said during the debate. He told MA in a statement Saturday that Nunn “let the Farm Bill expire twice, making it difficult for farmers to plan and stay competitive with Big Ag.”

Nunn said in a Sunday statement to MA: “Iowa’s 87,000 family farmers know I’ll keep fighting for them.” During his debate against Baccam, Nunn pointed out that 17 bills he co-led were included in the House farm bill draft and blamed Senate ag negotiators for the ongoing stalemate.

“The Senate hasn't even put so much as a list on a napkin of what they intend to do. In D.C., it takes two to tango,” Nunn said.

An ad paid for by Nunn’s campaign emphasized his push to ban China from purchasing U.S. farmland — a policy stance that’s gained some bipartisan support in both chambers. And the House GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund spent more than $400,000 on an ad saying Baccam “poses as a farmer.”

Progressive group involvement: Fairness for Iowa, a group of small business owners and organizations, has also paid for more ads focused on ag impacts of the race and Nunn’s policy record.

One ad paid for by Fairness for Iowa argues that the decline in family farms is to blame for rising food prices, and that “Nunn would make it worse” by giving “Big Ag more tax breaks.”

“Fairness for Iowa has been keeping an eye on Congressman Zach Nunn’s voting record in Congress and working with members of our community to urge him to lower costs for working people, make the wealthy and corporations, like Big Ag, pay their fair share in taxes, and support small family farms,” said Matt Sinovic, executive director of Progress Iowa, the group leading the Fairness for Iowa coalition, in a statement.

Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) was one of four House Ag Democrats to vote for the GOP-led House farm bill during the committee's May markup. | AP

In Colorado’s 8th: House Ag Democrat Rep. Yadira Caraveo is facing off against Republican Gabe Evans, a former police officer, in this toss-up district.

A recent ad paid for by Caraveo’s campaign touted her ability to “cross party lines” to vote for the farm bill during the House Ag Committee’s markup of the GOP-led package in May, making her one of four Democrats to vote for the bill.

Caraveo and other vulnerable Democrats faced intense pressure to vote for the farm bill, despite partisan disagreements over nutrition and climate policy, as it’s historically been considered political malpractice to vote against a farm bill. After the vote, Caraveo noted that seven of her bills were included in the farm bill package, but that she was still “deeply concerned” about “cuts to nutrition and climate programs, both of which I fiercely oppose.”

Evans’ campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment in time for publication, but his campaign website said he’s pledging to support agriculture and “ensure countries like China aren’t controlling our food production.”

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Republican opponent Eric Hovde were asked about farm bill negotiations during a debate Friday. | Morry Gash/AP

Meanwhile, for the Senate: Eric Hovde, the Republican running against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), said he’s “not an expert on the farm bill” during a debate because he’s not currently a senator.

Baldwin’s campaign announced Sunday evening it’s launching an ad showing that clip to rural voters across Wisconsin, Spectrum News reported.

A message from the Hass Avocado Board:

TALKING AG HEADS: As we approach the election — and a pretty uncertain transition period to follow — our policy and politics teams broke down some top candidates for a future Trump or Harris administration.

If Trump wins: Former President Donald Trump has not engaged in formal conversations about a potential Cabinet, but has spitballed potential contenders during plane rides to campaign events or when he is impressed by one of his allies on television. His top picks for USDA:

— Trump has discussed Sid Miller as someone he’s considering for USDA head. The MAGA loyalist is a former rodeo cowboy turned Texas agriculture commissioner.

— Kip Tom is the current co-chair of the Farmers and Ranchers for Trump group and is potentially in the mix as a possible USDA chief or senior official.

— Ted McKinney has privately made clear he wants the top USDA job, but he’s not actively campaigning for it. He was Trump’s Agriculture undersecretary for trade and foreign ag affairs and currently leads the nonpartisan group of all 50 state agriculture chiefs.

Read more about Trump’s potential Cabinet picks from Meredith here.

If Kamala Harris wins: The vice president is likely to approach filling out her Cabinet much like she did when taking over Joe Biden's campaign operation: ensuring Cabinet members are people she personally trusts while keeping some continuity with the current administration. Here are her potential USDA picks:

— USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small is one of the top contenders to take over as Harris’ USDA chief and would be a historic pick, as the first woman of color to ever lead the department.

— Karen Ross was appointed California’s state agriculture chief in 2011 and has served in the role ever since. (But some people who've spoken with Ross say she isn't vying for the role.)

— Current Secretary Tom Vilsack is the longest-serving USDA chief in recent history and one of the longest-serving Cabinet officials in the past few decades. He hasn’t yet ruled out returning to USDA should Harris win.

— Some lawmakers are again raising House Ag member Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), as we reported last week.

Read our breakdown of Harris’ potential Cabinet here.

TELL US MORE — Did we forget to include your USDA secretary prediction? Are you Tom Vilsack and want to tell us your plans for next year? We want to hear from you! Drop your host a line: gyarrow@politico.com.

AG INDUSTRY ON TRUMP’S PLANS: Business groups hoping for an overhaul of immigration laws to plug worker shortages are running headlong into Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other possible crackdowns if he returns to the White House, as Lawrence Ukenye and yours truly report.

The agriculture industry, in particular, has historically relied on undocumented migrant workers and people in the U.S. through legal visas.

“From an employer standpoint, you're very concerned when you hear somebody talk about deporting a significant amount of the existing workforce,” said Michael Marsh, president and CEO of the National Council of Agricultural Employers, a trade association.

“The mass deportation of folks who are already here in unauthorized status, but have been here for years, having all those folks deported, that would be extremely problematic for agriculture,” Marsh said.

Laramie Adams, associate director of government affairs at the Texas Farm Bureau, said a potential Trump administration will need to “strike a balance” of controlling the border while protecting agriculture’s reliance on immigrant labor. Read the full story for Pro subscribers here.

— Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller issued an executive order allowing Texas farmers and ranchers to tap into the Rio Grande river for irrigation purposes, following a serious drought made worse by delayed water deliveries from Mexico required under a decades-old treaty.

— Four agricultural workers tested presumptively positive for avian influenza after working with infected poultry at a commercial egg farm in Washington state, the state’s health department announced Sunday.

— Halloween not tasting as sweet this year? It could be because cocoa prices have more than doubled since the start of the year and have remained at record highs, according to Wells Fargo data shared with CNN.

THAT’S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line and send us your agriculture job announcements or events: gyarrow@politico.com, meredithlee@politico.com, marciabrown@politico.com, abehsudi@politico.com and ecadei@politico.com.

A message from the Hass Avocado Board:

California growers and importers have new data underscoring the value of the Hass avocado check-off program.

Independent researchers at the University of California, Davis, found the promotion program led by the Hass Avocado Board (HAB) and its member associations has driven more than 250% growth in U.S. fresh avocado consumption over the 20-year life of HAB. Thanks to hard work, strategic investment, and continual collaboration between U.S. producers and importers, results show sales are expanding primarily through rising demand and not lowering prices. Growers who funded the national program are seeing solid profits with a ROI of 247%.

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