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Plus: Pharmacies Issue Prescriptions For Big Changes

 
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Two of the nation’s leading drug stores issued their prescription for turnarounds last week: Sweeping and immediate change. After deep losses and uncertain prospects at CVS Health and Walgreen Boots Alliance, each company put forward bold new plans last week. The question is whether they will work.

CVS Health announced on Friday that CEO Karen Lynch was abruptly stepping down and being replaced by David Joyner, a company executive vice president who has been in charge of the the Caremark pharmacy benefit firm. The board’s new executive chairman Roger Farah said in a press release, “The board believes this is the right time to make a change.” A big part of this timing is likely the coinciding release of preliminary results, which came out as the company announced its leadership change. The health company, which reports quarterly earnings at the beginning of November, now expects adjusted earnings of between $1.05 to $1.10 a share—well below analyst expectations of $1.69 a share. Contributing to that is a $1.1 billion charge stemming from higher medical costs than expected in its Medicare business.

After the announcement, CVS stock cratered nearly 10%, but it’s been an extremely tough year for the pharmacy and health company before now. Year-to-date, CVS stock is down more than 25%. Weeks ago, the company announced it was cutting 2,900 jobs, though it would not confirm rumors that it was exploring options to separate its retail and insurance units. Following its last disappointing earnings report in August, now-departed CEO Lynch took over day-to-day management of the company’s Aetna health insurance division, which she led before becoming CEO in 2021.

Walgreens Boots Alliance reported a net loss of $3 billion in its earnings report last week, and plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years. CEO Tim Wentworth said the company has faced a “challenging” retail environment, and the closures will be “immediately accretive” to adjusted earnings and free cash flow. Wentworth had first said the chain would be closing a significant amount of its stores in a June interview with the Wall Street Journal, so the announcement wasn’t unexpected. In fact, news of the restructuring actually brought Walgreens a more than 15% boost to its share price last week.

But the big question: Will any of this work? It’s hard to say. The retail pharmacy industry has seen major challenges. Large chains like CVS and Walgreens have thousands of locations, which experts say may be stretching the companies’ resources as consumers are changing their buying patterns. And the already pricey non-pharmacy items being sold in the retail stores have suffered from inflation, so sales have sagged—and often are locked up to prevent shoplifting. Pharmacies are also getting lower reimbursement rates from the prescription drugs they sell, which pharmacy benefit managers set. CVS owns the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager—which new CEO Joyner previously ran—so perhaps the company hopes to shift its finances based on his understanding of the model.

It’s no secret that CEOs have a challenging job and must show leadership and discipline under extreme circumstances. Claudius Hildebrand and Robert Stark, who work for executive recruiting and coaching firm Spencer Stuart, spent the last several years looking at CEO needs, challenges and performance throughout their tenure at the top. The book detailing what they found, The Life Cycle of a CEO, publishes this week. I talked to Hildebrand and Stark about the book and its lessons for leaders of today and tomorrow. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

Until next time.

Megan Poinski Staff Writer, C-Suite Newsletters

Follow me on Forbes.com

In todays CEO newsletter:
  • First Up: The AI stock boom continues with Apple and Nvidia leading the way
  • Human Capital: KPMG starts a monthly report on how much the workforce loses because of child care issues
  • Tomorrow’s Trends: A new book shows how CEOs operate, solve problems and lead throughout their tenure
TECHNOLOGY + INNOVATION
Tech stocks continued their upward trend last week, with Apple and Nvidia both hitting new heights. Apple’s stock surged to an all-time high last Tuesday, with the tech company briefly being worth $3.61 trillion. The likely catalyst was the announcement of a new iPad Mini model, which is the first update since 2021. The new iPad Mini, which goes on sale this week, has a powerful A17 processor that will work with the company’s AI Apple Intelligence features when it launches later this month, writes Forbes senior contributor David Phelan. Capping off Apple’s bullish week was data on Friday showing better-than-expected sales of iPhone 16 in China. The new phone’s sales are 20% higher than the iPhone 15, according to data from research firm Counterpoint. Apple will be rolling out Apple Intelligence and reporting earnings at the end of the month, so more big changes can be expected.

Nvidia’s stock has also been rallying for much of October, and is nipping at Apple’s heels as the current second-most valuable company by market cap. The AI chip company has both led stock surges and been a beneficiary of them. On Thursday, when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported blockbuster earnings, its stock went up more than 12%, boosting its market cap above $1 trillion, and taking Nvidia, and other chip stocks including AMD, Broadcom and Intel with it. While Nvidia’s market cap is currently $3.39 trillion, Bank of America analysts wrote there is still a lot of growth possibility for Nvidia, projecting the total addressable market for generative AI technology will grow to $363 billion by year’s end—a staggering increase from 2023’s $45 billion market size. Nvidia currently has a 75% market share, and the new report estimates its market cap could hit $4.7 trillion.

POLICY + REGULATIONS
A new Federal Trade Commission rule will make it easier for consumers to cancel subscriptions and memberships. The “click-to-cancel” rule, passed last week by the FTC, requires that businesses make it as easy to cancel as it is to sign up. The commission says it gets nearly 70 consumer complaints per day about being unable to cancel subscriptions and memberships easily, and received more than 16,000 comments on the proposed rule. Hard-to-cancel services and subscriptions have been a growing consumer issue for things like traditional print periodicals, gym memberships and fintech apps.

While this new policy may look bad for business revenues, some say it may help their bottom line. Guy Marion, CMO of Chargebee, which helps subscription-based businesses manage customers, told Forbes contributor True Tamplin that 80% of consumers are more likely to purchase an online service if they know they can cancel the same way. Better cancellation methods also give more opportunities for companies to communicate with consumers and offer alternatives, discounts or customer service interactions. Marion told Tamplin these interactions reduced cancellations by 23%.

HUMAN CAPITAL
It’s relatively easy to compute the direct financial cost of child care for workers: Find the weekly cost of the service and multiply by 52. But anyone who’s ever dealt with the child care system knows there is a lot more to it: Hours spent finding available providers (and time without them spent on waiting lists), shifting work schedules to accommodate drop-off and pick-up hours, unexpected days off to care for sick children or problems with providers. KPMG has factored in many of those issues in its new Parental Work Disruption Index. Forbes’ Maria Gracia Santillana Linares writes about the new monthly report, which seeks to quantify lost working hours and wages stemming from child care issues. “The index is a clear way for companies to understand the strains in the labor market,” KPMG U.S. Senior Economist Matthew Nestler said. “The loss in working hours is valuable to companies because [it quantifies] the child care problems their employees are having.”

Right now, the index finds childcare issues are getting worse across the board. Compared with a February 2020 pre-pandemic baseline, there are 22% more workers impacted by inadequate child care. More than 1 million employed women are missing work or only part-time because of child care issues, KPMG found. This translates to a loss of 9 million to 26 million working hours per week, or 468 million to 1.4 billion working hours annually.

Executive search and consulting firm Spencer Stuart works closely with corporate leaders, and regularly puts together reports about their feelings and the future of leadership. After collecting data to analyze the performance of every S&P 500 CEO during the 21st century, the firm’s CEO analytics leader Claudius Hildebrand and co-leader of its CEO succession practice Robert Stark, turned their findings into a deeply researched book, The Life Cycle of a CEO. This book, which becomes available this week, explains the job trajectory of a CEO, from the time before they are appointed to when they leave and are succeeded. 

I talked to them about their book and its lessons for leaders of all sorts. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity. A more complete version is available here.

Both of you work with executives and leaders all the time. What were some of the things you found through the research for this book and talking to former and current CEOs and board members that surprised you, or stood out as being more important than you had thought? 

Stark: The big initial surprise was from quantitative research. We all assume—I, too, had assumed, and most directors and CEOs we surveyed assumed—that once someone gets in the job, their growth, and therefore their performance, follow a linear trajectory. And the data totally upended that. It’s not linear at all. 

If you ask people today about CEO tenure and performance over time, they will paint a picture of an inverted U, where each year is better than the last, until around year eight to 10, when their energy wanes and the U starts to curve down. The big reveal of the initial research was that it’s not linear at all. There are headwinds and tailwinds and sharp ups and downs that are, for most people, completely unexpected. 

Hildebrand: It’s that cult of the charismatic leader. The idea is that because someone has been given a title, suddenly they know it all. They’re wiser, they’re funnier, they’re taller. This is the way we portray these leaders in the media. It’s also the way we as a society want to see these leaders. We don’t want to have a self-doubting leader. That’s not very reassuring. It’s also in the advice currently out there for leaders: This idea that you have to have these four traits, or these five behaviors and these six mindsets. What we find time and time again is when we work with executives and CEOs and advise and we [find there are some] who question their decisions, who have to rely just as much on gut as they have to rely on information. And to Bob’s point around this idea of continuous growth, we found there’s no model of leadership that focuses on a set of growth or development stages.

But at the same time, you never step into the same river twice. Just because someone is the leader doesn’t mean they don’t change over time. And that’s what we found. The challenges that leaders face might have similarities but they manifest themselves differently depending on where one is in their tenure and their psyche in those moments. The book’s not only about what CEOs do to be great, but it’s also how leaders feel along that journey. 

Going through the different stages of the CEO’s life cycle, as well as the before and after periods, is there any one area that you think CEOs or other leaders should be taking a closer look at and reassessing how they respond to challenges?

Stark: For most CEOs, before we started writing about this, a moment of reinvention that was really unknown is when they get to that year three through five, and they’re doing really well, they kind of have a sense that, ‘Oh, I’ve figured this out. I’m good at this now. My team is humming. People see the results that I’ve created in the moves that I’ve made earlier.’ It’s very easy at that point to settle in. 

I remember when we first talked to CEOs about our findings years ago, I was in front of a big group, and a CEO put up his hand and said, ‘Every role I’ve been in before CEO was three to five years, so I never had to reinvent in place. I’m in year five right now, and I’m trying to figure out how do I start over in this role?” That’s a huge moment because people are used to: I get a new role, I figure out how to do that, create some value, get the new team going. But if you’re going to go past five years, you’ve got to reinvent in-place without external stimulus. 

Hildebrand: There are so many different points in time to highlight that it’s really hard to single out any one of them. There’s a benefit for leaders who use the life cycle as a framework: to identify where, for you personally, you might see that challenge. It’s a lot about foreseeing the challenges. The key message of the book is preparedness beats preparation. This idea of anticipating what might be coming your way and then taking the appropriate actions and avoiding some of the pitfalls.

If there’s one lesson, story or example you would like readers to take from your book, what would it be?

Stark: The CEO job is interesting to study because it’s so complex. But the complexity of the role also reveals that for all of us, even in roles less complex, we shouldn’t assume that the role that we’re in is static. It actually unfolds over time around us. In any job that we have to do, our particular job is to develop and adapt as the job is unfolding, notice how it’s unfolding and be adaptive to that unfolding. That’s what happens to CEOs. Those who figure out how to adapt and grow in the role can thrive, and those who don’t struggle mightily.

Hildebrand: Challenges exist at every stage. What’s different is how they manifest themselves throughout the progression of tenure. If we think about our personal lives and the challenges we encounter in our 20s and 30s and 40s and 50s, they’re very different. 

For a new CEO stepping into the role, the amount of information that’s thrown at them, we all say it is like drinking from the firehose. You don’t know what is important and what is urgent. Everything seems to be important and urgent. How to deal with this? That’s a very different challenge than what some of the veteran CEOs might feel when they’ve been in that role for 12, 15 years, when they feel like they no longer have real access to information. Yes, they can get the information, but the board is, at this point, deferential to them. The team, at this point, thinks they know it all. They’re now in a sort of echo chamber, where it’s hard to peer through. 

What’s constant is the importance of information, but how the challenge manifests is very different. Understanding where one is on one’s journey, and how all these different challenges manifest themselves is hopefully the big contribution to anyone reading the book as they work on taking their game to a higher level. 

 

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