THE BATTLE FOR THE ‘BLUE DOT’ — AND THE HOUSE
OMAHA, Nebraska — Appearing alongside Democratic House hopeful Tony Vargas after a Sunday afternoon campaign event, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Nebraska’s lone competitive congressional district “could very well determine” if his party flips the House.
And based on the who’s who of both Democratic and Republican politicians making the journey out to the state’s “blue dot” — the party’s nickname for the Omaha-centric district currently represented by Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in an otherwise conservative state — Jeffries is hardly the only one who thinks so. On the Democratic side:
In addition to Jeffries, Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) made a stop in Omaha over the weekend, and No. 3 House Democrat Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) is out in the district Monday. Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) stopped by Friday night. And vice presidential candidate Tim Walz swung through the state Saturday. And the Republicans: Speaker Mike Johnson appeared alongside Bacon on Friday, less than 24 hours after Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) appeared at a fundraiser with Bacon and hundreds of supporters.
Partially explaining the heavy presence here is the fact that this goes beyond the House. Speaking to a raucous, packed room of supporters, Jeffries, who will likely become speaker if his party flips the chamber, also tapped into the “blue dot” enthusiasm flowing around Omaha to make the case that the district is at the heart of the presidential fight. “This could be the electoral vote that makes the difference,” Jeffries said, spurring applause.
But there’s a wider issue at play, too: Both parties might have bet that their more likely path to the majority ran through blue states like California and New York. But in the final weeks of the months-long slog for the House, they are waging a fierce battle for not only this district, but a handful of other seats in the Midwest currently held by Republicans.
Prognosticators have moved once-red-leaning seats like those held by Iowa Reps. Zach Nunn (R) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) into toss-up territory. And Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) is facing a tougher than expected race. Johnson made a swing through Iowa after his stop with Bacon, before campaigning in Michigan on Saturday. “The heartland of the United States of America here in Nebraska, in Wisconsin, in Iowa and in other parts of the center of this great country will have a big role to play in what type of Congress we have,” Jeffries said.
It’s hardly the first time Democrats have worked vociferously to unseat Bacon. Vargas and Bacon faced off in 2022, with the Nebraska Republican squeaking out a win by less than three percentage points. But Democrats are feeling increasingly confident this time around. A steady stream of public polling has shown Vargas up, and he could get further help from Vice President Kamala Harris, who is also leading polling in the district.
Bacon said during our swing through the state that he’s getting calls from Washington telling him that he’s up in internal polls. National and state Republicans remain confident Bacon could pull out a win, though they know he faces top-of-the-ticket headwinds. And as blue dot signs have sprung up around the district, Republicans have responded with signs of their own, including one locally referred to as the “Pac-Man” signs — showing a larger red dot with Trump-like hair poised to eat smaller blue dots.
“You look at all the other money coming in. The fact that some people think I’m up right now… despite the avalanche of [Democratic] money, I think it says a lot,” Bacon said. — Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Oct. 21
where we are doing you know what, you know where on our drive through Iowa.
| 
