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| By Dustin Gardiner and Tyler Katzenberger |
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Presented by Phenomena Global |
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 Election workers process ballots at the office of the Orange County Registrar of Voters. The county has faced scrutiny over the slow pace of results in a swing House race. | Getty Images |
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THE BUZZ: CALIFORNIA (THERE IS NO END TO COUNTING) —
The sluggish pace of ballot tallying in California is a perennial gripe for voters, but it has become a particularly heated flashpoint in a swing Orange County House race. Democrat Derek Tran’s razor-thin lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel
has prompted a wave of social media complaints about the state’s election rules and online conspiracy theories about voter fraud — all in a contest that will play a key role in determining how narrow of a majority Republicans have in the House of Representatives. Steel was ahead on election night, but Tran overtook the incumbent 11 days later as more mail-in ballots were tabulated by elections officials in Orange and Los Angeles counties. Late ballots typically skew more Democratic in coastal, urban areas, and more Republican in inland districts.
He now leads Steel by 102 votes. On some days, the counting has been so slow that only a few dozen votes have been added to either candidate’s lead. The vast majority of outstanding ballots in California’s 45th district are in OC, with roughly 13,000 remaining, according to an estimate from political data expert Paul Mitchell.
Late counting is nothing unusual in California: The state’s election laws have long prioritized higher voter turnout over the speed of results. California has all-mail elections, and ballots can be received up to a week after polls close as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. Counties also have up to a month to let voters “cure” their signatures and other information on ballots flagged by elections officials. Orange County Registrar of Voters Bob Page
said the county's results reporting rate "is on par with other elections." Page told Playbook the county has election workers processing ballots from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. and is providing overtime pay. “We have not taken our foot off the pedal at all," he added. But the race has provided a heyday for online conspiracy theorists, stoked by conservative flamethrowers Marjorie Taylor Greene and Elon Musk. Taylor Greene
tweeted over the weekend that Democrats are “stealing a House seat right out from under us in CA.” Meanwhile, Musk, who owns the social-media platform X, shared a post insinuating Tran’s lead in later ballot counts was the result of fraud. The hoopla led Tran’s campaign to release a statement Monday vouching for the validity of the process. Campaign Manager Gowri Buddiga
called it a “testament to the strength of our democracy.” Last weekend, Tran’s campaign had more than 100 volunteers contacting voters in an effort to cure ballots (which typically involves asking a voter to verify their disputed signature with elections officials).
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A campaign sign for U.S. Rep. Michelle Steel remains attached to a fence in California's 45th Congressional District in Orange County on November 12, 2024 in Westminster, California. | Getty Images/Mario Tama |
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Steel, who helped create Orange County’s mail-in election system as a former county supervisor, hasn’t leveled any allegations of fraud herself. But all the negative attention — despite any evidence of fraud — has brought renewed scrutiny to California’s election rules. Already, Republican lawmakers are floating legislation to speed up the election-results calendar — though any such push from the right is likely to hit a Democratic-supermajority roadblock in Sacramento.
Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher told Playbook that he agrees there are “good explanations” for why late mail-in ballots would skew Democratic in the Tran-Steel race. He said he’s seen no evidence of voter fraud there.
Still, Gallagher said his Republican caucus will likely push bills to tighten the state’s deadline for counties to certify election results. “It creates distrust,” he said. “I’m not saying that there’s anything nefarious happening.” Mitchell, the data guru, has noted that late ballots helped Republicans win seats in Southern California this cycle, including GOP Rep. Ken Calvert
, who faced a tough rematch in the Inland Empire. “It's trying to solve for something that's not real,” Mitchell said of Republicans’ efforts to rewrite California election laws. “There's nobody being harmed by making sure everybody's vote gets counted.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Tuesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at
916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen.
WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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| A message from Phenomena Global: Fear not—the Cavalry is here, and it’s led by Artists. At
Phenomena Global
, we ignite movement-making culture by channeling capital into creativity, harnessing the power of entertainment to shape hearts and minds. We bring together cultural icons, media powerhouses and top financiers to design strategies that break norms—delivering not just positive returns, but inspiring purpose-driven impact. This is the rise of Cultural Capitalism for Good. Join the movement. |
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 | LOS ANGELES | |
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 This combination of two booking photos provided by the California Department of Corrections shows Erik Menendez, left, and Lyle Menendez. | California Dept. of Corrections via AP |
KICK THE CAN — Newsom is leaving the Menendez brothers’ fate in the hands of Los Angeles District Attorney-elect Nathan Hochman, his office announced yesterday.
“Voters have entrusted District Attorney-elect Hochman to carry out this responsibility, the governor’s office said in a statement, referencing outgoing DA George Gascón’s election loss to Hochman earlier this month. “The Governor will defer to the DA-elect’s review and analysis of the Menendez case.” Hochman
told Fox 11 News last week he wants to speak to involved parties, review the confidential prison files and examine the “thousands of pages” of court transcripts from the case before determining if he supports the resentencing request. If you recall, Gascón requested resentencing for Lyle and Erik Menendez in October
in the final days of his struggling reelection campaign. He recommended altering the sentence to make the brothers eligible for parole — something Hochman blasted as a “desperate political move” to “grab headlines through a made-for-TV decision.”
Newsom acknowledged the resentencing request on his “Politickin’” podcast last month when he called new evidence in the case “compelling,” in reference to the popular Netflix drama series and documentary about the family released this year. But the governor said he would wait to take a position until Gascón’s request moved through the courts and landed on his desk.
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ELECTION RESULTS | |
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Republican Rep. John Duarte. | Francis Chung/POLITICO |
CENTRAL VALLEY HOUSE UPDATE — Incumbent GOP Rep. John Duarte pulled strong margins out of a ballot drop in Fresno County to increase his lead over Democrat Adam Gray to nearly 2,300 votes. Duarte
told KCRA 3 yesterday that he's encouraged by President-elect Donald Trump’s strong performance in his district, while Gray said he has a recount fund available if needed. More ballots from Merced and Stanislaus counties are expected today, according to California Target Book. LEG RACE UPDATE — Democrat Joey Acuña
conceded to Republican Jeff Gonzalez yesterday in the race for an open Assembly seat in Imperial County, scoring Republicans their first flip in the Legislature this cycle. Gonzalez declared victory at a press conference Monday afternoon. “We the people stood up. We the people have risen. And we the people have won,” he said.
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| CLIMATE AND ENERGY | |
DROUGHT ACROSS THE LAND — State leaders on the Eastern Seaboard are scrambling to deal with something California knows all too well — drought and fire. Some Golden State officials hope the moment can bring attention to issues long considered niche to the West. Read more in yesterday’s California Climate.
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TOP TALKERS | |
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President-elect Donald Trump. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images |
DEPORTATION PLANS — Trump confirmed in a Truth Social post Monday that he plans to declare a national emergency and use the military for the mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally, POLITICO’s Emmy Martin and
Greta Reich report. POSTCARD FROM DAVIS — Some dentists in the Yolo County college town, which has never fluorinated its water, say Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s proposal to remove fluoride from water supplies nationwide could result in broad, negative oral health impacts, particularly for low-income children on government health plans,
the San Francisco Chronicle reports. POINT, VOTER ID — An Orange County judge ruled late last week that a controversial voter ID ballot measure approved this year by voters in Huntington Beach can stand — for now. Attorney General Rob Bonta
’s office said in a statement Sunday that he and Secretary of State Shirley Weber “disagree with the court’s decision” and “remain confident in the strength of our case,” given state lawmakers recently approved legislation aimed at banning local voter ID laws.
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| Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more.
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AROUND THE STATE | |
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San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie. | AP |
— San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie is bringing Open AI leader Sam Altman onto his transition team. (San Francisco Standard) — How Trump could wield federal power
to undermine California’s protections for transgender care. (Los Angeles Times) — Latest on the saga of former San Jose Councilmember Omar Torres, who resigned and has been arrested on child sex abuse charges. (KQED) — A Silicon Valley school district is at odds over how to address gender identity in early education. (San Francisco Chronicle)
— Roy Al, the controversial (and frankly, ominous-looking) new Sacramento Kings mascot, was banished to Cincinnati this past weekend. (Sacramento Bee)
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| A message from Phenomena Global:
Fear not—the Cavalry is here, and it’s led by Artists. At Phenomena Global
, we ignite movements that shape culture to define the future. We channel capital into creativity, empowering cultural icons, media powerhouses and celebrities to drive change that touches hearts, shifts perspectives and inspires action.
Our approach is built on connection. We unite visionaries across industries—artists, financiers, and influential media leaders—to design strategies that break traditional norms. These are purpose-driven ventures designed to use the power of entertainment to transform society. With deep access to powerful networks across nations, we unlock pathways for sustainable growth that deliver positive returns while championing meaningful change.
That’s Cultural Capitalism for Good
—a new era where capital fuels culture, and culture drives global progress. At Phenomena Global, we’re crafting a legacy that transcends generations. One bold investment, one cultural milestone, and infinite opportunities.
Join the movement: www.phenomenaglobal.com/ |
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| PLAYBOOKERS | |
BIRTHDAYS — Jack Dorsey … Hunter Sprole BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Monday): Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) (6-0) …
Steve Goldman … (was Sunday): Lorne Michaels ... Jon Avnet ... Michele Tasoff ... (was Saturday): Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) … Alexandra I. Goodwin … (was Friday):
Kevin S. Bright ... Micah Rosen WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.
CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.
Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com. |
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