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| By Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
President Joe Biden’s last-minute moves are likely to shake up Ukraine’s military strategy, perhaps in a way that gives Kyiv and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right) more leverage before any Trump-led peace talks. | Susan Walsh/AP | With help from Joe Gould and Steven Overly Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Senior Biden administration officials insist that their latest efforts to help Ukraine aren’t moves to box in President-elect DONALD TRUMP’s foreign policy when he takes office in January but rather responses to the battlefield needs of Kyiv’s fight against Russia. The latest U.S. decisions include transferring American anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, lifting a ban on how Ukraine can use U.S. long-range weapons to strike Russian territory and allowing U.S. military contractors into the country. The Biden administration has also vowed to commit $7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine by the time President JOE BIDEN leaves office. (Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Tuesday announced a new tranche of $275 million for Ukraine that would include more drones, artillery ammunition and mortars). Some senior Trump advisers have framed these as a last-minute way for Biden to escalate the war and limit the incoming president’s options on Ukraine and talks with Russia. Other pro-Ukraine European officials and U.S. lawmakers have framed it as a long-overdue way to support Ukraine before Trump takes office. Either way, they see this as all about Trump. But Biden officials say that’s not so.
The decision to send Ukraine all available funds was made in late September — a full month before the U.S. election day, two senior U.S. officials said. The decision to allow Ukraine to fire long-range Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, missiles into Russia was made in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia and in a bid to deter North Korea from sending further troops, another official familiar with the matter said. And the landmine decision was made in the face of mounting concerns that Russia could break through Ukrainian lines in Eastern Ukraine after making small and costly but steady gains
there. "The driving factors on our decisions aren’t about anything that happened on Nov. 5 but Ukraine’s battlefield needs and our desire to put Ukraine in the best possible position,” a U.S. official said. Like others, this official was granted anonymity to discuss the matter. “Discussions about policy adjustments were under serious consideration and discussions were moving forward before the election and continued after.”
Either way, this back-and-forth debate sheds light on the high-stakes and messy world of a lame-duck president’s crisis response — particularly when the incoming president has a vastly different worldview and set of priorities. Still, it’s hard to ignore all the unknowns that come with the Trump factor here. Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine swiftly once he takes office in a promise as bold as it is light on details. His administration is set to include both pro-Ukraine hawks and Ukraine skeptics alike.
Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), who pressed the administration to greenlight the mines, told our own JOE GOULD that he thought Trump might not roll back Biden’s executive actions on the mines, Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia and military contractors in Ukraine. “It seems to be a trait of Donald Trump that anything the prior administration does he wants to undo,” Kelly said. “My hope here is that, with his experience as president, he can evaluate things on their merits, the effect it will have. He certainly has a right to make some changes — I hope he makes adjustments and doesn’t just throw them out because it was the other guy.”
Then, there’s the fact that Biden’s last-minute moves are likely to shake up Ukraine’s military strategy, perhaps in a way that gives Kyiv more leverage before any Trump-led peace talks. Ukrainian officials don’t see the ATACMS decision as a total game-changer but say it will help them target Russian military infrastructure and troops on the border looking to enter the fight, said Yehor Cherniev, a Ukrainian lawmaker from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY's Servant of the People party and head of Ukraine’s delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. And if the Biden administration isn’t drawing any links between their decisions and Trump entering office, Ukrainians are certainly thinking about how to use the weapons before the change in administration, Cherniev said. He said that they may start pushing the Biden administration to allow for the use of Tomahawk cruise missiles to hit Russian defense factories out of Ukraine’s reach.
“Trump can use it as leverage or as an argument in the negotiation with Russians,” Cherniev said. “But we will have two months prior to this probable decision. At least for now, we have this time.”
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | HOCHSTEIN IN LEBANON: U.S. special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN will head to Israel Thursday in the administration’s latest push to secure a cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon, citing progress in talks. But as the New York Times’ EUAN WARD reports, representatives of the militant group Hezbollah said today that the ball is in Israel’s court to finalize a deal. Meanwhile, in the Senate, lawmakers are taking aim at arms transfers to Israel as the war in the Gaza Strip continues and more concerns mount about a humanitarian crisis in the enclave. Sens. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) PETER WELCH (D-Vt.), JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) and BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) introduced a resolution that would disapprove of arms sales to Israel in light of human rights concerns in the Gaza Strip. But that effort is destined to fall short — key Democrats, including the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee BEN CARDIN of Maryland, are opposed. The Israeli Embassy also urged lawmakers to oppose the measure today. UKRAINE’S MESSAGING PUSH: Ukraine is making the case that continued U.S. support for Kyiv will advance American interests — not only just in Washington. As Eric writes, counselor to the Ukrainian Embassy KATERYNA SMAGLIY and senior adviser to the German Marshall Fund HEATHER CONLEY traveled to Louisville, Kentucky on Thursday as they made the case for Ukraine aid. It’s one of many trips Ukrainian officials and their boosters have made to parts of the American heartland over the past year as they seek to educate Americans about the importance of supporting Ukraine for U.S. interests. And the message they shared is definitely sensitive to Trump and his supporters. Smagliy noted how Trump gave Ukraine javelin missiles and took a clear stance on the annexation of Crimea as president. But she still emphasized that Ukraine wants to win because a bad peace deal would have serious consequences.
“Peace doesn't mean surrender, because surrender means occupation in our case, and occupation means torture chambers, mass graves, rapes of children, women, devastation, destruction of your cultural heritage, churches, etc,” she warned at a lunch with the city’s World Affairs Council, a community group that works to raise awareness of international issues in Louisville. “So we will not stop fighting for what we hold dear. And this is our right.” ABOUT THE EMBASSY CLOSURE: The U.S. closed its embassy in Kyiv today, citing the threat of a “significant air attack.” But the State Department is expecting to reopen the embassy tomorrow and isn’t adding more details about why it made such a dramatic move. State Department spokesperson MATT MILLER didn’t expound on the nature of the threat, but told reporters “We expect to resume normal operations tomorrow.” “We base our security posture … on the best assessments we make of all the information available to us and try to be incredibly cautious to protect our personnel,” Miller continued. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95,@johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | WHITAKER GOES TO BRUSSELS: Trump unveiled his pick for ambassador to NATO, and it wasn’t a name we were expecting. As Eric wrote for POLITICO’s Transition Blog, Trump plans to nominate former Acting Attorney General MATTHEW WHITAKER as his ambassador to NATO. On Capitol Hill, the pick also surprised some key lawmakers. Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) told Joe that he, as the Republican lead for Congress’ NATO Observer Group, wants someone who will show the alliance tough love without taking a blowtorch to it. He said he wants to see a NATO that is “bigger, stronger and more lethal.”
“I want to see continued progress on [NATO members] paying their fair share,” Tillis said. “Anybody who thinks NATO needs to be rethought needs to look at 75 years of history. There’s a reason why we have, I think, a majority democracy in the world today. … I would like to have somebody who will talk softly and carry a big stick because there’s more work to do — and they all need to know they’re in the family.”
Looming over the alliance are fears that Trump might repeat plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany — which Biden reversed — but Tillis didn’t think Trump would do it. “President Trump’s been out of office for four years, the world has changed,” he said. “Hundreds of thousands of people have died on the battlefield of Ukraine. We have a different dynamic that we didn’t have. Part of that dynamic is the absence of leadership from President Trump.”
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RAIMONDO’S REFLECTIONS: Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO has a new way of looking at her department’s mission now — spend like there’s no tomorrow to boost semiconductor chip manufacturing. In an interview with our own STEVEN OVERLY on the POLITICO Tech podcast, Raimondo said she’s rushing to spend all the money left under the marquee 2022 CHIPS and Science Act. She also argued that the Commerce Department has become a national security agency in its own right, owing to its role in implementing the law.
“We are very much a national security-focused agency now more than ever,” Raimondo said. “And that's because national security now more than ever revolves around technological security, whether that's on offense, like the CHIPS Act making more chips in America … Or defense with our export controls.” The CHIPS Act faces an uncertain future. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON last month stated the House GOP may try to repeal the bill in the next Congress, only to walk back those comments. Trump on the campaign trail also attacked the bill, arguing the law’s price tag is too high.
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Democracy is facing a multi-front attack on nearly every continent. At the Halifax International Security Forum, senior military officers and thought leaders will have to choose whether to stand together against these challenges or go down the path of division. Follow the proceedings here. | | | | | | |
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AUSTIN VS. HEGSETH: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN isn’t a supporter of his potential successor’s views on women servicemembers. In an interview with NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE, Austin was asked about comments about women servicemembers from PETE HEGSETH, the Fox News host Trump plans to nominate as the next Pentagon chief. Hegseth said during a podcast released this month that the military “should not have women in combat roles” and that “men in those positions are more capable.” Those comments have prompted some pushback, especially as a growing number of Republicans and Democrats are pushing to expand the participation of women service members Austin summarily rejected the claims, pointing to his own experiences as a member of the military.
“I have spent 41 years in uniform, three long tours in Iraq, one in Afghanistan, and everywhere I went on a battlefield, there were women in our formation,” Austin said. “I would tell you that, you know, our women are the finest troops in the world.”
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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SPORTS DIPLOMACY PUSH: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is on a mission to make sure the U.S. is primed to compete in an oft-forgotten arena of diplomacy: Sports. In a letter led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.), 55 House members are asking the State Department to beef up its strategy around major sporting events. In an interview, Kamlager-Dove explained that the U.S. is “entering into the decade of sports” as it prepares to host the 2026 World Cup (alongside Canada and Mexico) and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Those events, she argued, are also a key opportunity to advance U.S. diplomacy. And the State Department needs the adequate resources to make that happen.
“The Olympics … are the largest peace gathering event in the world. And so why would we miss that opportunity, not just to showcase who we are, but also to try to be more than just transactional and really push all types of diplomatic efforts?” Kamlager-Dove said. “Because it remains true today, relationships, diplomacy, being able to talk. All of that matters.”
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— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace unveiled a new taskforce, chaired by Harvard Belfer Center Director MEGHAN O’SULLIVAN, former Energy Secretary ERNIE MONIZ and Carnegie Endowment President MARIANO-FLORENTINO CUELLAR that will review the country’s nuclear posture and the future of non-proliferation. Its members will include former Deputy Secretary General of NATO ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, former national security adviser STEPHEN HADLEY, former national security adviser SUSAN RICE, former Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. SANDY WINNEFELD.
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— KATHARINE HOURELD, The Washington Post: How a brutally repressive African country freely raises money in the U.S. — DHRUV MEHROTRA and DELL CAMERON, WIRED: Anyone can buy data tracking U.S. soldiers and spies to nuclear vaults and brothels in Germany — RYAN GINGERAS, War on the Rocks: Turkey, Greece, and Trump
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— PunchBowl News, 9 a.m.: A discussion on the news of the day and the future of defense and industrial policy with Rep. STEVE WOMACK (R-Mo.) — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Strategic challenges facing the U.S.-South Korea alliance — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Threats to the homeland — Arab Center Washington D.C. 10 a.m.: ”Palestine Activism on U.S. College Campuses: Dissent, Repressive Policies, and Implications." — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: "Russia and the Authoritarian Challenge” with Rep. McCaul — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Big ideas for America's new national security team — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 3:30 p.m.: "20 Years After Fallujah: Lessons Learned and Unlearned." — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 6 p.m.: A discussion on "Stories of North Korea" and a film screening of the documentary "Beyond Utopia" Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is deploying landmines against us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is delivering us new tranches of military aid.
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