My note to you this week arrives on the verge of Donald Trump’s inauguration as America’s 47th president. Mr Trump’s critics have often accused him of buffoonery and isolationism. But even before he has taken the oath of office, Mr Trump has shown how much those words fall short. He has helped secure a ceasefire in Gaza and shocked European politicians with a taboo-busting bid for control over Greenland. It’s already clear that the impact of Mr Trump’s second term on the rest of the world will be both more disruptive and more consequential than his first. Mr Trump is supplanting a vision of America’s role in the world that held sway since the second world war. Welcome, instead, to the Trump Doctrine.

Gone is the idea of America as the indispensable defender of democracy, settled borders and universal values. Mr Trump has little truck with alliances, multilateral rules or any other elements of what is often called the “post-war world order”. Instead the Trump Doctrine is based on the belief that American strength, wielded in unorthodox and opportunistic ways, is the key to peace and prosperity. This approach, simultaneously swaggering and unpredictable, transactional and norm-busting, will be tested in three conflicts: the Middle East, Ukraine and America’s cold war with China. In some places, such as the Middle East, it may prove surprisingly successful. But there are serious risks and worrying inconsistencies, especially over what the Trump Doctrine would mean for Taiwan. When the use of power is untethered from values, the result could be chaos on a global scale. 

I encourage you to sign up for our webinar on January 21st. Our US editor, John Prideaux, will lead a discussion about what Mr Trump’s second term means for America and the world. Subscribers have the opportunity to ask the panel questions during the event or to submit one in advance.