Citi's China economic surprises index is currently in positive territory, lifted by the series of policy pledges and market-boosting measures announced since September. But that boost has faded, and the index is its lowest in two months.
Could Friday's raft of indicators stop the drift? It's possible that some, like export and new loans data released earlier this week, are on the strong side as businesses and households ramp up activity before tariff-threatening Trump takes office.
On the other hand, the wider trend suggests negative surprises are more likely, and it's worth noting that December was characterized by strong capital outflows, sluggish stock markets, and the biggest fall in bond yields since December 2008.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the TikTok saga for signs of how cool or otherwise U.S.-Sino relations are ahead of Trump's return to the White House.
The Chinese-owned video app, which is used by more than 170 million Americans monthly, is set to be banned on Sunday under a law mandating that it find a non-Chinese owner. But Trump's incoming national security adviser said on Thursday the new administration will keep TikTok alive in the U.S. if there is a viable deal, in a potential reprieve for the firm.
Currency volatility in Asia, meanwhile, is ticking higher after two central bank policy surprises this week from South Korea and Indonesia, and as the Japanese yen rallies strongly ahead of a possible Bank of Japan rate hike next week.
