Principals

1. Immigration alliance
2. Rubio a go
3. Wildfire prevention
4. TikTok ban delay?
5. Trump’s Africa team
6. Gaza ceasefire
7. Corporate dealmaking

PDB: DeSantis taps Florida AG Moody for empty Senate seat

Biden to commute sentences of thousands of nonviolent drug offenders … Putin meets Iran’s Pezeshkian ... NYT: How Schumer pushed Biden to exit race

Fetterman-Britt power duo

The Senate will vote this morning on breaking the final filibuster on the Laken Riley Act, a bill to detain undocumented immigrants accused of theft — which was fueled by the friendship between Sens. Katie Britt and John Fetterman, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Republicans initially believed Democrats were likely to block the bill, but after Fetterman signed on, it gained steam. “I have no doubt that it has helped build the momentum that we’re seeing today,” Britt told Semafor. We expect a significant number of Democrats who voted to open debate on the bill to oppose it on final passage after just one of their amendments got a vote. Still, most in both parties believe the measure should clear its final hurdle today and pass the Senate sometime early next week. Then it heads back to the House.

Who will be confirmed on Day 1?

Marco Rubio could be a little lonely in Donald Trump’s Cabinet at first. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch told Semafor that early signals from Democrats point toward allowing a vote on Rubio’s confirmation on Day 1. Meanwhile, Senate Homeland Security Chair Rand Paul is shepherding DHS nominee Kristi Noem’s confirmation hearing today, and told Semafor he hopes to have a vote both in committee and the Senate floor on Monday. Democrats aren’t quite sure. “That’s not my impression,” said Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., the committee’s ranking member. “I certainly support putting her up as quickly as we can.” Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker told Semafor he’s planning a Monday committee vote on defense nominee Pete Hegseth, but final confirmation may have to wait due to Democratic opposition. His forecast: “Perhaps as early as Wednesday or Thursday.”

— Burgess Everett

Lawmakers to vote on wildfire prevention

The House plans to vote on the Fix Our Forests Act next week, which will make it one of the first House-passed bills under the Trump administration. The legislation will include measures to simplify permitting, enhance fire safety, and support firefighters. Dozens of House Democrats voted for the Republican-led bill last Congress, and lawmakers anticipate increased support for it this year. Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif, who said he’s been working with Rep. Scott Franklin, R-Fla., on a wildfire package, told reporters he had dinner with a bipartisan group of a dozen members to discuss what they could do following the crisis in Los Angeles. “I expect a lot more Democrats than the 55 that voted for it will vote” for the bill next week, he predicted. There’s still no word on aid to California — or whether Republicans will attach conditions to it.

— Kadia Goba

Washington mulls delaying TikTok ban

A new front has opened up on Capitol Hill over the impending ban on TikTok. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voiced support for delaying the ban, which is scheduled to go into effect on Sunday, as it searches for an American buyer. The 2024 law was designed to force China-based ByteDance to sell the app. The Supreme Court is poised to rule imminently on whether the law is constitutional. “The time to force the sale is now,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., one of the bill’s original cosponsors, told Semafor. The president can grant a 90-day extension if ByteDance is making progress toward divesting from TikTok. President Biden is planning not to enforce the ban on Sunday, according to the Associated Press. That will leave the issue to Trump, who has voiced support for TikTok and said he wants to find a deal to save the app.

— Morgan Chalfant

Trump’s Africa team starts to take shape

Trump’s Africa team is coming together, with former US special envoy J. Peter Pham expected to be the State Department’s top Africa official and retired Lt. Col. Rudy Atallah, an Africa expert with Pentagon experience, set to serve on the NSC’s counterterrorism team, people familiar with the transition told Semafor. Pham is a respected player in US-Africa policy circles in Washington, with one person saying it feels like he has been “auditioning for the role for decades.” Even so, some Republicans have expressed concerns about certain prospective picks, questioning their alignment with Trump’s disruptive agenda. Officials will face challenges like the brutal civil war in Sudan, countering Russian and Chinese influence, and strengthening economic ties with the continent.

— Mathias Hammer and Yinka Adegoke

For more reporting on Trump’s Africa policy, sign up for Semafor Africa. →

Gaza’s unsteady truce

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a long-discussed Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal was finalized, but major hurdles remained. The six-week truce will involve the release of 33 hostages, a welcome pause in a 15-month conflict in which 46,000 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. Israel’s security cabinet is set to approve the agreement today, ahead of its implementation on Sunday. Yet opposition within Israel is significant — one senior minister has pledged to quit, calling the ceasefire “disastrous” — and even if the agreement is followed to the letter, what follows it is unclear, with the “second stage” of the truce threatening to “throw up even more obstacles than the first,” a Haaretz columnist warned.

For more global news and analysis, subscribe to Semafor’s twice-daily Flagship newsletter. →

Corporate M&A is all about vibes

If you talk to CEOs and dealmakers right now, you can hear the animal spirits stirring. Stocks are hitting record highs, and the expectation of lighter regulation under Trump has companies eying mergers that would have faced long odds under President Biden’s regulatory ax. “When I went into a Fortune 500 boardroom two years ago with an idea for a transformative deal, they had 18 excuses why not to do it,” said Raphael Bejarano, who co-heads Jefferies’ dealmaking arm. “That’s washed away.” But as with so much of the economy lately, the numbers and the vibes don’t quite match up. The $27 billion worth of deals that have been announced in the US so far this year is actually lower than the first two weeks of 2024. And borrowing is still expensive.

Read on for why executives expecting a lighter antitrust regime under Trump may be surprised. →

As Donald Trump’s second inauguration approaches and global leaders head to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Mixed Signals asks: What will the media’s role be in an increasingly unstable era? Will it bring more order or disorder to global politics?

Ben and Max invite Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, to explore how global leaders interact with new media and whether digital media is shaping global politics or vice versa. They also discuss Ian’s run-in with Elon Musk in 2022 and how Donald Trump’s second term could influence media leaders like Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. →

Blindspot: Oil and Dreamers

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A judge dismissed New York City’s lawsuit against oil companies over “greenwashing” pollution.

What the Right isn’t reading: Democratic state attorneys general are trying to defend a Biden administration policy that opened up coverage through the Affordable Care Act to Dreamers.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t sounding sympathetic towards TikTok, despite Donald Trump openly pledging to try to save the app from a US ban. Asked about TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s planned appearance at next week’s inauguration, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, replied: “He’s going to have a lot of time on his hands, so maybe that’