Jan. 17, 2025

CoinDesk 20 Index: 3,971.72 +4.38%
Bitcoin (BTC): $102,325.64  +2.88%
Ether (ETH): $3,420.11  +1.98%
S&P 500: 5,937.34  -0.21%
Gold: $2,709.90  -0.35%
Nikkei 225: 38,451.46  -0.31%

After a day or so of trying, bitcoin established a foothold above $100,000 before climbing as high as $102,500. The inauguration of President Trump on Jan. 20 has the crypto world buzzing at the possibility of U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve plans being developed. The broader digital asset market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, is over 4% higher in the last 24 hours, with DOGE and ADA among the biggest gainers. Leading the way is litecoin, which rose above $130 for the first time in nearly three years after the Nasdaq stock exchange filed with the SEC to list an ETF investing in the token. 

XRP replaced bitcoin as the most-traded digital asset on Coinbase, the exchange that's seen as a proxy for U.S. demand. Volume trends are consistent with the recovery in the U.S. demand for XRP, which is closely linked to blockchain-based payment network Ripple, as presaged by the Coinbase premium indicator a week ago. Interest in XRP, the biggest gainer following Donald Trump's election victory in November, is supported by speculation of a spot XRP ETF being approved in the U.S. The XRP/USD pair accounted for 25% of Coinbase's 24-hour trading volume of $6.86 billion. The BTC/USD pair ranked second, contributing 20% with ETH/USD in third place, according to data source Coingecko.

Bitcoin mining stocks tracked by JPMorgan enjoyed a strong start to the year, with 12 of the 14 companies outperforming BTC in the first two weeks. The network hashrate has risen 2% month-to-date to an average of 793 exahashes per second (EH/s) and is 51% higher than a year ago, the bank said. The hashprice, a measure of daily mining profitability, has dropped less than 1% since the end of December, the bank noted, as "hashrate growth outpaced BTC price movement … Miners earned ~$54,900 in daily block reward revenue per EH/s over the first two weeks of January," analysts Reginald Smith and Charles Pearce wrote, which was 2% less than last month.

There is one key indicator that shows a lack of excitement among U.S. investors, despite the optimism fueled by President Trump's imminent inauguration.

BTC is trading at a slight discount on the Nasdaq-listed Coinbase exchange relative to the global bourse Binance Holdings. It's a sign of muted U.S. demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

Data by CryptoQuant shows gyrations in the Coinbase premium indicator, which measures the spread between BTC's price on Coinbase and Binance.

BTC's November-December surge from $70,000 to over $108,000 was led by U.S. investors, as evident from the consistent Coinbase premium during that period.

There's yet to be comparable bullish pricing on Coinbase, despite expectations for significant positive developments in the U.S. Perhaps much of the Trump optimism was factored in during the November-December rally, and U.S. traders are now waiting to see if the incoming president will follow through on his promises.

- Omkar Godbole